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Fault tolerance Trading

Forex · Started Oct 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
6.9%
Max Drawdown
56.5%
Trades
371
Win Trades
86.8%
Profit Factor
1.30
Win Months
42.6%

About this strategy

This is a neutral strategy regardless the bullish or bearish of the market.
30-35 trades weekly. This is a strategy based on quantitative model design.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-8.482.619.7100.1
201725.312.02.6-13.16.617.0-0.2-6.17.67.8-5.1-4.154.5
2018-8.08.7-1.14.79.6-4.5-1.8-2.6-0.79.1-0.1-1.011.0
20192.91.81.62.5-2.5-3.02.52.81.1-0.41.5-1.010.2
20203.10.1-6.59.2-7.6-4.1-8.1-1.03.31.3-5.1-5.4-20.1
20213.83.34.5-7.2-3.15.52.8-1.13.1-1.73.6-2.510.7
20225.8-3.0-3.97.3-4.6-1.35.21.9-4.31.0-4.8-5.2-6.8
2023-3.00.9-3.2-8.19.7-7.9-0.8-1.97.1-2.0-5.7-7.2-21.5
20247.61.51.71.3-2.1-0.6-1.6-2.31.83.94.63.620.6
20252.42.1-8.1-16.6-1.6-13.5-12.411.10.00.00.00.0-33.7
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began10/8/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age123 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades371
# Profitable322
% Profitable86.8%
Avg trade duration39.8 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown56.5%
drawdown periodFeb 14, 2020 - July 25, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)6.9%
Avg win$764
Avg loss$3,863

Ratios

W:L ratio1.30
Sharpe Ratio0.25
Sortino Ratio0.45
Calmar Ratio0.49

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.06
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life252.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-146.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)6.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)7.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity106.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.7%
Percent Trades Futures0.1%
Percent Trades Options0.2%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.4%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$3,863
Avg Win$764
# Winners322
Sum Trade PL (losers)$189,294
Sum Trade PL (winners)$246,005
Num Months Winners52
# Losers49
% Winners86.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct112

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table122

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)57291.58
Avg Position Time (hrs)954.86
Avg Trade Length39.80
Last Trade Ago444

Regression

Alpha0.04
Beta-0.12
Treynor Index-0.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.14
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-68.52
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)5.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats86.85
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats83.90
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.96
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.36
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.32
SD0.51
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df37
t1.13
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.73
Sortino ratio1.46
Upside Potential Ratio3.12
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms18
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.38
Mean of criterion0.32
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.51
Covariance-0.02
r-0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.44
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error36
t(b)-1.02
p(b)0.84
t(a)1.43
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.04
Jensen alpha (a)0.44
Mean0.21
SD0.46
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.47
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.46
df37
t0.83
p0.21
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.65
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.56
Sortino ratio0.85
Upside Potential Ratio2.43
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.39
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.25
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms18
N of observations38
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.46
Covariance-0.02
r-0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.30
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.21
DF error36
t(b)-1.11
p(b)0.86
t(a)1.16
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.87
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.69
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.18
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.22
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.39
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df847
t1.13
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.72
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.72
Sortino ratio1.07
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean2.52
Downside part of mean-2.13
Upside SD0.50
Downside SD0.36
N nonnegative terms405
N negative terms443
N of observations848
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.43
Mean Square Error0.39
DF error846
t(b)-1.19
p(b)0.88
t(a)1.23
p(a)0.11
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.43
Mean0.21
SD0.60
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.34
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.34
df847
t0.62
p0.27
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.43
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.43
Sortino ratio0.52
Upside Potential Ratio6.08
Upside part of mean2.41
Downside part of mean-2.20
Upside SD0.45
Downside SD0.40
N nonnegative terms405
N negative terms443
N of observations848
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.30
SD of criterion0.60
Covariance-0.01
r-0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.36
DF error846
t(b)-1.25
p(b)0.89
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.90
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean-0.92
SD0.48
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-1.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-1.90
df130
t-1.35
p0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.69
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.88
Sortino ratio-2.27
Upside Potential Ratio5.28
Upside part of mean2.15
Downside part of mean-3.07
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.30
Mean of criterion-0.92
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.48
Covariance-0.04
r-0.20
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.66
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error129
t(b)-2.27
p(b)0.62
t(a)-0.97
p(a)0.55
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.38
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)4.56
Jensen alpha (a)-0.66
Mean-1.04
SD0.49
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-2.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-2.11
df130
t-1.50
p0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-4.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.66
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-4.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.67
Sortino ratio-2.48
Upside Potential Ratio5.01
Upside part of mean2.12
Downside part of mean-3.16
Upside SD0.26
Downside SD0.42
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms83
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-1.04
SD of predictor0.47
SD of criterion0.49
Covariance-0.04
r-0.19
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.19
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.81
Mean Square Error0.23
DF error129
t(b)-2.15
p(b)0.62
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.56
Treynor index (mean / b)5.39
Jensen alpha (a)-0.81
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations38
Minimum0.71
Quartile 10.97
Median1.00
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.65
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.20
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.71
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.25
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.89
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.78
Number of observations848
Minimum0.69
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.45
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low49
Percentage of outliers low0.06
Mean of outliers low0.93
Number of outliers high46
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.40
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations131
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.02
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.47
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.31
Inter Quartile Range0.09
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.47
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.13
Maximum0.54
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.30
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high0.54
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.11
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.29
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.41
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.28
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.30
Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.14
Median0.26
Quartile 30.37
Maximum0.48
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.48
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1031947008
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)1988
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.27
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.58
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.22
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.49
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.62
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.80
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.64
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-1.32
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.32
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-9.91

Trading record

Placed 39 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
EUR/GBP short160May 23, 2017Aug 21, 2025$1,286
CHF/JPY short160Apr 25, 2017Aug 21, 2025($716)
EUR/USD short230Apr 23, 2017Aug 21, 2025($16,990)
USD/MXN long80Apr 27, 2017Oct 16, 2017$625
USD/JPY short160Jun 29, 2017Sep 19, 2017$20
EUR/CAD short470Apr 18, 2017Sep 19, 2017($757)
AUD/CHF long240Apr 18, 2017Jul 17, 2017$850
NZD/CAD short230Apr 18, 2017Jul 12, 2017$1,474
USD/JPY long80Jun 6, 2017Jun 28, 2017$15
CAD/JPY long80Jun 2, 2017Jun 13, 2017$8
GBP/USD short230Apr 17, 2017Jun 12, 2017$635
EUR/JPY short240Apr 25, 2017Jun 7, 2017$2
GBP/JPY short150Apr 23, 2017Jun 6, 2017$5
GBP/CAD short310Apr 23, 2017May 26, 2017$1,407
USD/CAD short230Apr 19, 2017May 25, 2017$108
CAD/JPY long310Apr 11, 2017May 25, 2017$11
USD/JPY short160Apr 25, 2017May 22, 2017$2
@CC N7long2Apr 19, 2017May 22, 2017$2,604
EUR/GBP long400Apr 6, 2017May 22, 2017$4,041
EUR/USD long150Apr 6, 2017Apr 18, 2017$738
EUR/CAD long80Apr 6, 2017Apr 18, 2017$430
USD/CAD long150Apr 10, 2017Apr 18, 2017$698
NZD/CAD long230Apr 4, 2017Apr 18, 2017$804
GBP/JPY long380Apr 6, 2017Apr 18, 2017$21
EUR/SEK short230Apr 4, 2017Apr 16, 2017$386
AUD/USD long150Apr 6, 2017Apr 14, 2017$451
EUR/NZD long80Apr 10, 2017Apr 11, 2017$282
EUR/TRY short150Apr 7, 2017Apr 11, 2017$89
GBP/CAD long80Apr 10, 2017Apr 11, 2017$582
GBP/USD long150Apr 9, 2017Apr 11, 2017$986

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.