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Fast Nickles

Stocks · Started Sep 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
14.9%
Max Drawdown
39.5%
Trades
65
Win Trades
70.8%
Profit Factor
3.40
Win Months
60.8%

About this strategy

Invests a core position in highly-stable ETF's (or CEF's opportunistically), with a variable position in volatility ETFs. The allocation to volatility ETF's is determined using a proprietary, quantitative-driven method which encompasses multiple variables known to be predictive of the next-day % change in targeted volatility ETF's.

Fast Nickles is a long-only strategy to accommodate subscribers who want to use the strategy in their IRA and other accounts which will not allow short positions. Furthermore, Fast Nickles will not have an allocation greater than 75% of NAV committed to volatility (with the difference being either in cash or a "core", non-volatility-related ETF or CEF); and Fast Nickles will "shade" its volatility exposure depending on the model's overall score. Normal trading will have this strategy trading 5-10 times per month, with trades typically entered at the market open. Because buy and sell signals are normally tied to quantitative signals, and because the system will maintain open positions overnight, draw downs of 15% or more are possible. You may therefore wish to set your own stop loss limits. However, I have found from extensive back-testing that setting stop losses reduces ultimate gains.

To control downside risk without stop losses, we instead limit our exposures as noted above, and build into our model proprietary variables that are predictive of black-swan events. We also will go short volatility as well as long volatility in order to take advantage of market moves in either direction.

Important: we don't provide professional financial or investment advice specific to your situation; rather, we simply provide algorithmic (and in rare situations discretionary) trading signals for certain S&P 500 volatility (VIX) related exchange traded products based on proprietary analysis.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20169.80.919.24.437.9
201715.514.314.6-11.2-3.81.82.2-7.411.78.04.35.164.6
20189.6-18.01.62.3-1.6-2.05.8-0.33.2-12.52.1-9.0-20.2
20199.04.81.03.8-7.98.40.0-8.53.79.24.71.832.2
2020-0.2-15.50.0-12.8-6.07.24.7-3.00.712.73.5-18.3
2021-5.16.710.12.62.93.8-1.95.5-3.96.6-3.53.930.0
2022-7.0-1.40.8-9.81.6-1.75.4-2.3-4.11.78.30.0-9.6
20238.7-3.4-1.54.92.011.25.40.3-4.8-5.015.81.538.3
20242.84.31.3-0.26.22.2-1.9-7.3-5.3-3.27.8-2.82.7
20251.0-1.2-2.0-15.66.63.44.95.13.6-2.2-3.813.711.0
20261.8-3.0-9.87.35.1-1.64.67.20.6

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/12/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age122 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades65
# Profitable46
% Profitable70.8%
Avg trade duration110.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.5%
drawdown periodJan 16, 2020 - June 27, 2020
Annual Return (Compounded)14.9%
Avg win$888
Avg loss$684

Ratios

W:L ratio3.44
Sharpe Ratio0.54
Sortino Ratio0.72
Calmar Ratio1.42

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.61
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life261.8%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)46.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)14.9%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)15.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss27.0%
Chance of 20% account loss14.5%
Chance of 30% account loss2.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$684
Avg Win$888
# Winners46
Sum Trade PL (losers)$12,988
Sum Trade PL (winners)$40,843
Num Months Winners73
# Losers19
% Winners70.8%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct3851

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table121

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)158997.66
Avg Position Time (hrs)2649.96
Avg Trade Length110.40
Last Trade Ago2948

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.75
Daily leverage (max)6.11

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.89
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.04
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.03
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.48
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.61
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats92.31
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats65.18
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.53
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.50
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.77

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.40
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.22
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.20
df40
t2.26
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.12
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.31
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio2.25
Upside Potential Ratio3.76
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.27
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms14
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.40
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.02
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error39
t(b)2.37
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.06
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.58
Treynor index (mean / b)0.65
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.34
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df40
t1.96
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.04
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.13
Sortino ratio1.77
Upside Potential Ratio3.24
Upside part of mean0.63
Downside part of mean-0.29
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms27
N negative terms14
N of observations41
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.02
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error39
t(b)2.26
p(b)0.01
t(a)0.85
p(a)0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
Mean0.45
SD0.36
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.24
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df913
t2.31
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.29
Sortino ratio1.61
Upside Potential Ratio6.95
Upside part of mean1.92
Downside part of mean-1.48
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms558
N negative terms356
N of observations914
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion0.45
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.36
Covariance0.05
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.92
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.11
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error912
t(b)23.86
p(b)0
t(a)0.71
p(a)0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.84
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.99
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.41
Treynor index (mean / b)0.48
Jensen alpha (a)0.11
Mean0.38
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.02
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.02
df913
t1.91
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.29
Upside Potential Ratio6.48
Upside part of mean1.90
Downside part of mean-1.52
Upside SD0.23
Downside SD0.29
N nonnegative terms558
N negative terms356
N of observations914
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.38
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.06
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.94
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error912
t(b)23.71
p(b)0
t(a)0.39
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.37
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean1.17
SD0.56
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.08
df130
t1.48
p0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.87
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.87
Sortino ratio2.89
Upside Potential Ratio9.59
Upside part of mean3.90
Downside part of mean-2.72
Upside SD0.39
Downside SD0.41
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.08
Mean of criterion1.17
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.56
Covariance0.16
r0.65
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.85
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.18
DF error129
t(b)9.69
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.46
Treynor index (mean / b)1.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
Mean1.01
SD0.57
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.78
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.77
df130
t1.26
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.00
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.01
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.55
Sortino ratio2.38
Upside Potential Ratio8.99
Upside part of mean3.82
Downside part of mean-2.81
Upside SD0.38
Downside SD0.43
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms55
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.99
Mean of criterion1.01
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0.57
Covariance0.16
r0.64
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.86
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error129
t(b)9.50
p(b)0.12
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.40
Treynor index (mean / b)1.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations41
Minimum0.79
Quartile 10.98
Median1.03
Quartile 31.09
Maximum1.28
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.07
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.81
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.28
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.71
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.15
Number of observations914
Minimum0.79
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.01
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low66
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high61
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.99
Median1.01
Quartile 31.02
Maximum1.08
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low7
Percentage of outliers low0.05
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.07
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.06

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.09
Median0.14
Quartile 30.20
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.14
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.27
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations54
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.35
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.16
Number of observations16
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.20
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.23
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.22
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.38
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-405385600
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)163
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.75
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.45
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.68
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.68
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.98
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.89
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.50
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.42
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.66
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.21
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)1.83
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.65
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs13.00
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal27.60

Trading record

Placed 113 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVXY long900Jul 17, 2018Aug 31, 2018$265
SVXY long900Jun 8, 2018Jul 13, 2018$67
SVXY long900May 21, 2018Jun 7, 2018$247
VXX long250May 11, 2018May 15, 2018($115)
SVXY long1000Apr 23, 2018May 10, 2018$605
SVXY long1000Apr 12, 2018Apr 19, 2018$835
SVXY long1000Mar 28, 2018Apr 9, 2018($45)
SVXY long1000Mar 22, 2018Mar 26, 2018($335)
SVXY long1000Mar 13, 2018Mar 21, 2018($505)
SVXY long1000Mar 7, 2018Mar 12, 2018$975
SVXY long1000Feb 22, 2018Feb 27, 2018$1,135
SVXY long950Jan 30, 2018Feb 14, 2018($4,875)
VXX long450Jan 18, 2018Jan 25, 2018($50)
XIV long55Jan 10, 2018Jan 12, 2018$244
VXX long325Dec 26, 2017Jan 2, 2018($305)
XIV long55Dec 19, 2017Dec 22, 2017$20
XIV long120Dec 6, 2017Dec 13, 2017$1,421
XIV long60Nov 30, 2017Dec 4, 2017($15)
XIV long165Nov 8, 2017Nov 29, 2017$852
XIV long110Oct 25, 2017Nov 6, 2017$598
XIV long55Oct 12, 2017Oct 23, 2017$461
XIV long115Sep 8, 2017Oct 3, 2017$2,250
XIV long225Aug 1, 2017Aug 31, 2017($1,224)
VXX long850Jul 20, 2017Jul 21, 2017$21
XIV long115Jul 7, 2017Jul 12, 2017$359
XIV long60Jun 22, 2017Jul 3, 2017$71
XIV long110May 23, 2017Jun 20, 2017$516
XIV long120May 11, 2017May 18, 2017($1,271)
XIV long120Apr 25, 2017May 8, 2017$513
VXX long700Apr 18, 2017Apr 25, 2017($1,712)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.