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GIR Global Leaders

Stocks · Started Jul 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-1.5%
Max Drawdown
54.7%
Trades
167
Win Trades
49.7%
Profit Factor
1
Win Months
11.4%

About this strategy

We Invest in individual stocks exclusively, of leading sectors of the markets utilizing primarily technical analysis, intermarket analysis and sentiment for investment decisions.


Our strategy can be summed up relatively easy.

1. We only invest in individual stocks.

2. We primarily utilize technical analysis to make investment decisions. In finance, technical analysis is a security analysis discipline used for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume mostly through the use of charts.

3. We also utilize intermarket analysis in our decision making. Intermarket Analysis is the analysis of more than one related asset class or financial market to determine the strength or weakness of the financial markets or asset classes being considered. Instead of looking at financial markets or asset classes on an individual basis, this type of analysis looks at several strongly correlated markets or asset classes such as stocks, bonds and commodities.

4. We believe in letting our profits run but attempt to avoid large drawdowns. This could be more easily described as "Money Management".

5. We are not hyper traders and our average holding period will usually run about 2-4 weeks.

Our methodology has changed over the last few months and the resulting improvement in performance is reflected in the more recent results. Previously we were more engaged in selecting ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) and trading more frequently. It is our belief that the change in methodology will result in improved performance and reduced drawdowns.

Since the transformation to trading primarily stocks on 01/01/2017, the maximum drawdown has been 10.7% and 6 out of 7 months (85.7%) from January 2017 through July 2017 have been profitable.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20164.03.8-10.7-7.737.9-20.6-2.4
20179.04.610.05.512.3-4.318.6-6.1-0.817.0-4.7-4.367.6
20186.6-18.3-8.3-10.30.26.70.00.0-5.8-13.40.6-17.2-47.9
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/5/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age125 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades167
# Profitable83
% Profitable49.7%
Avg trade duration19.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown54.7%
drawdown periodOct 23, 2017 - Dec 20, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)-1.5%
Avg win$780
Avg loss$793

Ratios

W:L ratio0.98
Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Sortino Ratio-0.19
Calmar Ratio-0.03

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.10
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life274.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-289.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-1.5%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)-0.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity120.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss96.0%
Chance of 20% account loss79.0%
Chance of 30% account loss45.5%
Chance of 40% account loss18.5%
Chance of 50% account loss4.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$793
Avg Win$780
# Winners83
Sum Trade PL (losers)$66,646
Sum Trade PL (winners)$64,723
Num Months Winners14
# Losers84
% Winners49.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct586

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table124

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)27986.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)466.44
Avg Trade Length19.40
Last Trade Ago2847

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.09
Treynor Index-0.08

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-6.23
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.04
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats30.30
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats54.77
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.45
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.16

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.02
SD0.37
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.05
df39
t0.09
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.02
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.12
Sortino ratio0.09
Upside Potential Ratio2.14
Upside part of mean0.45
Downside part of mean-0.43
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.21
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms28
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion0.02
SD of predictor0.27
SD of criterion0.37
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.14
DF error38
t(b)0.79
p(b)0.22
t(a)-0.24
p(a)0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.28
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.40
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.04
SD0.35
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.12
df39
t-0.23
p0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.20
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.95
Sortino ratio-0.20
Upside Potential Ratio1.84
Upside part of mean0.41
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms12
N negative terms28
N of observations40
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.35
Covariance0.01
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error38
t(b)0.96
p(b)0.17
t(a)-0.59
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.16
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.19
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.17
Mean-0.01
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.06
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.06
df873
t-0.10
p0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.02
Sortino ratio-0.08
Upside Potential Ratio6.81
Upside part of mean1.17
Downside part of mean-1.18
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms587
N of observations874
Mean of predictor0.41
Mean of criterion-0.01
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.10
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error872
t(b)3.11
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.38
p(a)0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
Mean-0.04
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.18
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df873
t-0.33
p0.63
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.89
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio6.60
Upside part of mean1.15
Downside part of mean-1.19
Upside SD0.17
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms287
N negative terms587
N of observations874
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.04
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.01
r0.11
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.09
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.08
Mean Square Error0.06
DF error872
t(b)3.20
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.59
p(a)0.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.19
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.47
Jensen alpha (a)-0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.32
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.52
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.19
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.51
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6795938563620864
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-4.13820724041759e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations40
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.92
Median1
Quartile 31.04
Maximum1.36
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 20.97
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.30
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations874
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.14
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low82
Percentage of outliers low0.09
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high80
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.04
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations5
Minimum0.09
Quartile 10.13
Median0.16
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.51
Mean of quarter 10.11
Mean of quarter 20.16
Mean of quarter 30.21
Mean of quarter 40.51
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.51
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations22
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.52
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.04
Mean of quarter 40.23
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.18
Mean of outliers high0.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.72
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.19
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.19
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.16
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.41
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-456068128
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)423
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.08
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.02
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.02
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.03
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.07
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 3 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
UNH long41Oct 16, 2018Dec 20, 2018($1,142)
PRAH long100Nov 29, 2018Dec 14, 2018($1,403)
EEFT long93Nov 30, 2018Dec 14, 2018($1,589)
PSQ long339Nov 20, 2018Nov 30, 2018($583)
BA long27Sep 28, 2018Oct 11, 2018($308)
GNRC long230Sep 10, 2018Oct 11, 2018($893)
UBNT long146Sep 7, 2018Oct 9, 2018($661)
APH long140Sep 10, 2018Oct 5, 2018($794)
ODFL long81Sep 6, 2018Oct 5, 2018($1,108)
ECHO long384Sep 10, 2018Sep 28, 2018($1,621)
LH long66May 25, 2018Jun 25, 2018$270
WTW long179May 14, 2018Jun 25, 2018$3,528
ECHO long339Jun 13, 2018Jun 25, 2018($261)
BOX long607Jun 20, 2018Jun 22, 2018($1,547)
LPLA long179May 8, 2018Jun 19, 2018$299
ZTO long672May 24, 2018Jun 19, 2018$983
IPGP long41Jun 6, 2018Jun 7, 2018($349)
MU long181May 30, 2018Jun 6, 2018($907)
DQ long184May 16, 2018May 30, 2018($379)
AKAM long158May 22, 2018May 25, 2018($90)
BCC long270May 21, 2018May 24, 2018($32)
CTAS long67May 9, 2018May 22, 2018$292
SPLK long106May 8, 2018May 21, 2018$393
SPGI long61May 9, 2018May 16, 2018$8
TAL long342May 11, 2018May 14, 2018($298)
HOME long395Apr 5, 2018May 11, 2018$928
DTYS long505Apr 25, 2018May 3, 2018($510)
WING long269Apr 16, 2018May 2, 2018($438)
FLT long63Apr 18, 2018Apr 25, 2018($699)
GWW long44Apr 19, 2018Apr 25, 2018($1,266)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.