Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it

Just a tester

Stocks · Started Apr 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
0.0%
Max Drawdown
100.0%
Trades
51
Win Trades
68.6%
Profit Factor
0.80
Win Months
3.9%

About this strategy

Cheaper than the top systems but valuable.
I believe if you own the other top systems, you should pay
The small price I ask as a side guide.

I alternate Xiv Tvix according to a very very sophisticated
She of rules that took me 9 years to develop.
I believe I know at a glance which way market will move.

My recent drawdown was due to a prolonged vacation where internet
was scarce. I am sorry for that. Join now and I will grandfather you in.
for that.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20160.727.431.413.1-6.3-3.256.3-119.6-1.2-153.6
2017-0.60.0-0.6-0.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/4/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age129 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades51
# Profitable35
% Profitable68.6%
Avg trade duration17.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown100.0%
drawdown periodApril 28, 2016 - April 03, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)0.0%
Avg win$3,098
Avg loss$8,783

Ratios

W:L ratio0.77
Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Sortino Ratio-1.53
Calmar Ratio-0.99

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.02
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life265.0%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-421.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)0.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)0.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity—
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$8,783
Avg Win$3,098
# Winners35
Sum Trade PL (losers)$140,530
Sum Trade PL (winners)$108,441
Num Months Winners5
# Losers16
% Winners68.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct390

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table8

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)25727.28
Avg Position Time (hrs)428.79
Avg Trade Length17.90
Last Trade Ago3638

Regression

Alpha0
Beta-0.32
Treynor Index0

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.09
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.16
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.06
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-8.48
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.04
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.46
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats41.95
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.70
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.47
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.12

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.37
SD1.02
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.35
df24
t-0.53
p0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.72
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.01
Sortino ratio-0.42
Upside Potential Ratio0.69
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.99
Upside SD0.46
Downside SD0.90
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms4
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.62
Mean of criterion-0.37
SD of predictor0.24
SD of criterion1.02
Covariance0.00
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.41
Mean Square Error1.09
DF error23
t(b)0.07
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.45
p(a)0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.78
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.89
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.47
Treynor index (mean / b)-6.36
Jensen alpha (a)-0.41
Mean-4.86
SD6.61
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.71
df24
t-1.06
p0.85
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.09
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.66
Sortino ratio-0.74
Upside Potential Ratio0.08
Upside part of mean0.53
Downside part of mean-5.39
Upside SD0.40
Downside SD6.61
N nonnegative terms21
N negative terms4
N of observations25
Mean of predictor0.58
Mean of criterion-4.86
SD of predictor0.23
SD of criterion6.61
Covariance0.02
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-5.14
Mean Square Error45.52
DF error23
t(b)0.08
p(b)0.47
t(a)-0.88
p(a)0.81
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-12.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta12.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-17.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.94
Treynor index (mean / b)-10.12
Jensen alpha (a)-5.14
VaR(95%)0.97
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.98
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.21
Mean0.00
SD1.75
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.00
df566
t0.00
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.33
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.33
Sortino ratio0.00
Upside Potential Ratio2.65
Upside part of mean2.73
Downside part of mean-2.73
Upside SD1.41
Downside SD1.03
N nonnegative terms494
N negative terms73
N of observations567
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion0.00
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion1.75
Covariance0.01
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.06
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error3.07
DF error565
t(b)0.32
p(b)0.37
t(a)-0.03
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha2.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.04
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
Mean-4.68
SD6.30
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.74
df566
t-1.09
p0.86
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.59
Sortino ratio-0.75
Upside Potential Ratio0.36
Upside part of mean2.23
Downside part of mean-6.90
Upside SD0.86
Downside SD6.24
N nonnegative terms494
N negative terms73
N of observations567
Mean of predictor0.61
Mean of criterion-4.68
SD of predictor0.38
SD of criterion6.30
Covariance0.02
r0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.14
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-4.76
Mean Square Error39.70
DF error565
t(b)0.20
p(b)0.42
t(a)-1.11
p(a)0.87
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-1.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-13.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha3.69
Treynor index (mean / b)-33.59
Jensen alpha (a)-4.76
VaR(95%)0.48
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.56
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.12
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.44
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.02
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.43
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations25
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.41
Mean of quarter 10.71
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.21
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.16
Mean of outliers low0.48
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.32
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.73
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.37
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.97
Number of observations567
Minimum0.00
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum2.95
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.04
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low73
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.92
Number of outliers high86
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.93
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.17
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.15
Median0.28
Quartile 30.64
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.28
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 41.00
Inter Quartile Range0.49
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations15
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.06
Quartile 30.25
Maximum1.00
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30.15
Mean of quarter 40.50
Inter Quartile Range0.24
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.07
Mean of outliers high1.00
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.53
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.60
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.25
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.27
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.70
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-593321472
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)340
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.48
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.01
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.46
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.99
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-1.98
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.78
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 67 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
DUST short3600Sep 30, 2016Nov 16, 2016($6,793)
DRIP short11000Sep 26, 2016Nov 16, 2016($14,027)
UVXY short10400Sep 22, 2016Nov 16, 2016($2,077)
TVIX long39550Sep 15, 2016Nov 15, 2016($79,695)
JNUG long5300Sep 28, 2016Nov 15, 2016($5,927)
IYZ long1700Aug 4, 2016Nov 15, 2016($365)
TMV long3100Jul 26, 2016Nov 15, 2016($1,021)
UGAZ long3500Oct 27, 2016Nov 15, 2016($15,979)
UWTI long1000Oct 31, 2016Nov 15, 2016($1,167)
DGAZ short20000Oct 26, 2016Oct 26, 2016$8,353
DGAZ long19500Oct 7, 2016Oct 25, 2016$20,731
ERY long5500Aug 22, 2016Oct 11, 2016($135)
UGAZ short2000Oct 10, 2016Oct 11, 2016$1,429
DWTI long1430Aug 25, 2016Oct 11, 2016($348)
JDST long4500Oct 4, 2016Oct 10, 2016$9,054
XIV long4150Sep 29, 2016Oct 10, 2016($1,639)
VIX1605J20 long14Sep 27, 2016Sep 29, 2016($20)
UVXY1614V13.5 long42Sep 26, 2016Sep 27, 2016$67
JDST long1000Sep 26, 2016Sep 26, 2016$963
UVXY short7900Sep 19, 2016Sep 22, 2016$14,172
TVIX long3250Aug 26, 2016Sep 15, 2016$12,612
ERY long1200Aug 19, 2016Aug 22, 2016$511
XIV long2600Aug 9, 2016Aug 16, 2016$477
XIV long1200Aug 3, 2016Aug 3, 2016$451
XIV long1700Aug 3, 2016Aug 3, 2016$216
UVXY short1100Jul 28, 2016Jul 28, 2016$94
UVXY short1000Jul 28, 2016Jul 28, 2016$255
UVXY short1700Jul 27, 2016Jul 27, 2016$1,202
UVXY short5200Jul 20, 2016Jul 25, 2016$2,111
KONE short9000Jul 22, 2016Jul 22, 2016$3,145

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.