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FUTURES TIMER

Futures · Started Mar 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
18.2%
Max Drawdown
93.6%
Trades
253
Win Trades
90.9%
Profit Factor
4.30
Win Months
25.0%

About this strategy

FUTURES TIMER trades the E-mini S&P 500 futures contracts and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Futures.

The system trades up to a maximum of 4 E-mini futures or VIX futures. Daily gains are targeted at 0.3-0.7%. Trades can be opened and closed on an intraday basis, or may last up to a few weeks.

Entry points are determined by proprietary technical indicators utilizing price, volume, and velocity.

This is an absolute return program with the goal of consistently outperforming the overall market regardless of the market environment and to produce that performance with less volatility than what is normally associated with the markets.

DISCLAIMER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20165.83.73.44.72.3-4.4-3.41.34.83.423.1
2017-4.1-4.90.17.55.14.23.51.35.03.50.51.925.4
20182.0-36.4-19.237.8179.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/1/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age129 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades253
# Profitable230
% Profitable90.9%
Avg trade duration13.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown93.6%
drawdown periodFeb 01, 2018 - Feb 05, 2018
Annual Return (Compounded)18.2%
Avg win$345
Avg loss$806

Ratios

W:L ratio4.28
Sharpe Ratio0.33
Sortino Ratio0.86
Calmar Ratio1.54

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.05
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life287.2%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)118.8%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)18.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.3%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity0.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss100.0%
Chance of 50% account loss100.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$806
Avg Win$345
# Winners230
Sum Trade PL (losers)$18,539
Sum Trade PL (winners)$79,318
Num Months Winners21
# Losers23
% Winners90.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table113

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)19286.35
Avg Position Time (hrs)321.44
Avg Trade Length13.40
Last Trade Ago3164

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.12
Treynor Index0.43

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.06
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.07
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades6.26
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)2.50
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats6.63
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats55.59
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.91
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.55
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.22

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.81
SD0.85
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.95
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.93
df26
t1.43
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.26
Sortino ratio2.56
Upside Potential Ratio3.67
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.80
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms7
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.81
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.85
Covariance0.06
r0.74
b (slope, estimate of beta)6.07
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.22
Mean Square Error0.34
DF error25
t(b)5.44
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.51
p(a)0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta3.77
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta8.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.67
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.22
Mean0.53
SD0.70
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.75
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df26
t1.12
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.06
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio1.34
Upside Potential Ratio2.40
Upside part of mean0.94
Downside part of mean-0.42
Upside SD0.59
Downside SD0.39
N nonnegative terms20
N negative terms7
N of observations27
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.53
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.70
Covariance0.05
r0.70
b (slope, estimate of beta)4.95
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.28
Mean Square Error0.26
DF error25
t(b)4.91
p(b)0.00
t(a)-0.74
p(a)0.77
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta2.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta7.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.50
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.28
VaR(95%)0.25
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.31
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
Mean0.73
SD0.78
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.94
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.94
df604
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.23
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.23
Sortino ratio2.47
Upside Potential Ratio6.76
Upside part of mean2.01
Downside part of mean-1.28
Upside SD0.72
Downside SD0.30
N nonnegative terms313
N negative terms292
N of observations605
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion0.73
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.78
Covariance0.01
r0.06
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.17
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.67
Mean Square Error0.61
DF error603
t(b)1.50
p(b)0.07
t(a)1.33
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.69
Treynor index (mean / b)4.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.68
Mean0.51
SD0.62
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.83
df604
t1.26
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.12
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.46
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.12
Sortino ratio1.58
Upside Potential Ratio5.66
Upside part of mean1.84
Downside part of mean-1.32
Upside SD0.53
Downside SD0.32
N nonnegative terms313
N negative terms292
N of observations605
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.51
SD of predictor0.28
SD of criterion0.62
Covariance0.02
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.46
Mean Square Error0.38
DF error603
t(b)2.21
p(b)0.01
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.26
Treynor index (mean / b)2.55
Jensen alpha (a)0.46
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean2.15
SD1.63
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.32
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.31
df130
t0.93
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.09
Sortino ratio3.70
Upside Potential Ratio9.37
Upside part of mean5.45
Downside part of mean-3.30
Upside SD1.53
Downside SD0.58
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.84
Mean of criterion2.15
SD of predictor0.59
SD of criterion1.63
Covariance0.04
r0.04
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)2.06
Mean Square Error2.68
DF error129
t(b)0.45
p(b)0.47
t(a)0.88
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha6.66
Treynor index (mean / b)19.43
Jensen alpha (a)2.06
Mean1.22
SD1.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.95
df130
t0.68
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.82
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.73
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.82
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.72
Sortino ratio1.89
Upside Potential Ratio7.31
Upside part of mean4.71
Downside part of mean-3.49
Upside SD1.09
Downside SD0.64
N nonnegative terms49
N negative terms82
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.68
Mean of criterion1.22
SD of predictor0.57
SD of criterion1.27
Covariance0.05
r0.07
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.15
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)1.11
Mean Square Error1.62
DF error129
t(b)0.77
p(b)0.46
t(a)0.62
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.24
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-2.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha4.69
Treynor index (mean / b)8.04
Jensen alpha (a)1.11
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations27
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11.00
Median1.04
Quartile 31.07
Maximum2.02
Mean of quarter 10.89
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.32
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.69
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.61
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.76
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations605
Minimum0.74
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum2.03
Mean of quarter 10.98
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low78
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high70
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.20
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.50
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.74
Quartile 10.99
Median1
Quartile 31.02
Maximum2.03
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low11
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.90
Number of outliers high14
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.06
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.15
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.05
Quartile 10.08
Median0.11
Quartile 30.26
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.11
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.18
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations52
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.94
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)1.39
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)2.12
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.23
Maximum0.46
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.46
Inter Quartile Range0.23
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-317503296
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)4
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.74
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.79
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.79
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.38
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.72
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.56
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs8.14
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.70
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)1.72
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)2.47
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)5.37
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.37
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal16.97

Trading record

Placed 325 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@VX K8short1Jan 18, 2018Jan 18, 2018$292
@VX K8short1Jan 16, 2018Jan 17, 2018$242
@VX G8long1Jan 16, 2018Jan 16, 2018$292
@VX G8long3Jan 3, 2018Jan 10, 2018$376
@VX F8long2Dec 15, 2017Dec 19, 2017$234
@VX H8short2Dec 1, 2017Dec 5, 2017$584
@VX H8short3Nov 1, 2017Nov 21, 2017$176
@VX X7long1Nov 1, 2017Nov 1, 2017$142
@VX H8short1Oct 25, 2017Oct 26, 2017$192
@VX H8short1Oct 19, 2017Oct 19, 2017$442
@VX X7long1Oct 16, 2017Oct 16, 2017$142
@VX G8short1Oct 10, 2017Oct 10, 2017$242
@VX X7long2Oct 5, 2017Oct 6, 2017$234
@VX X7long1Oct 3, 2017Oct 3, 2017$142
@VX F8short1Sep 21, 2017Sep 25, 2017$142
@VX F8short5Sep 3, 2017Sep 13, 2017$1,710
@VX Z7short10Aug 3, 2017Aug 29, 2017$220
@ES U7long3Aug 2, 2017Aug 2, 2017$76
@ES U7long2Aug 1, 2017Aug 1, 2017$184
@VX X7short1Jul 27, 2017Jul 27, 2017$142
@ES U7long2Jul 24, 2017Jul 24, 2017$134
@ES U7long2Jul 21, 2017Jul 21, 2017$84
@ES U7long2Jul 20, 2017Jul 20, 2017$109
@VX X7short1Jul 18, 2017Jul 19, 2017$192
@VX V7short3Jul 3, 2017Jul 11, 2017$676
@VX V7short1Jun 27, 2017Jun 28, 2017$192
@VX V7short1Jun 14, 2017Jun 19, 2017$392
@VX U7short2Jun 9, 2017Jun 13, 2017$534
@VX U7short1Jun 6, 2017Jun 8, 2017$242
@VX M7long1Jun 1, 2017Jun 2, 2017$92

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.