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Xiv Strategy

Equity · Stocks · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
16.4%
Max Drawdown
27.9%
Trades
25
Win Trades
52.0%
Profit Factor
3.20
Win Months
15.5%

Trend-following

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2016-0.118.01.121.9-10.234.811.1-7.1-3.88.67.6104.0
201730.84.39.2-0.0-5.35.210.1-21.116.73.1-0.0-0.055.0
2018-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.4-0.81.11.02.44.2-1.9-0.0-0.05.5
2019-0.0-0.0-3.04.3-6.5-0.01.4-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-4.3
2020-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.3
2021-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.10.0-0.10.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.4
2022-0.00.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.3
2023-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.00.00.0-0.3
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/26/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$10,000
Age130 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades25
# Profitable13
% Profitable52.0%
Avg trade duration26.4 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.9%
drawdown periodAug 08, 2017 - Sept 05, 2017
Annual Return (Compounded)16.4%
Avg win$2,534
Avg loss$869

Ratios

W:L ratio3.16
Sharpe Ratio0.59
Sortino Ratio0.82
Calmar Ratio1.34

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.13
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life289.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)98.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)16.4%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)11.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity9.6%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.7%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss42.0%
Chance of 20% account loss18.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$869
Avg Win$2,534
# Winners13
Sum Trade PL (losers)$10,429
Sum Trade PL (winners)$32,940
Num Months Winners20
# Losers12
% Winners52.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table129

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)38007.38
Avg Position Time (hrs)633.46
Avg Trade Length26.40
Last Trade Ago2645

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1
Daily leverage (max)1.03

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.11
Treynor Index0.26

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.07
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades2.18
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.97
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats88.20
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats72.55
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.88
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.93
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.46

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.37
SD0.33
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.10
df44
t2.17
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.16
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.07
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio2.44
Upside Potential Ratio3.63
Upside part of mean0.55
Downside part of mean-0.18
Upside SD0.31
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms11
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.33
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.22
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error43
t(b)0.91
p(b)0.18
t(a)1.80
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.68
Treynor index (mean / b)1.68
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.31
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.00
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.98
df44
t1.93
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.04
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.02
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.05
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.01
Sortino ratio1.87
Upside Potential Ratio3.01
Upside part of mean0.51
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.28
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms11
N of observations45
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error43
t(b)1.04
p(b)0.15
t(a)1.56
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.61
Treynor index (mean / b)1.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.12
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.15
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.34
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.49
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df983
t2.88
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.50
Sortino ratio2.08
Upside Potential Ratio6.71
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms788
N negative terms196
N of observations984
Mean of predictor0.23
Mean of criterion0.34
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error982
t(b)4.27
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.66
p(a)0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.54
Treynor index (mean / b)2.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.31
Mean0.31
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.36
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.36
df983
t2.63
p0.00
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.37
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.34
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.37
Sortino ratio1.85
Upside Potential Ratio6.42
Upside part of mean1.09
Downside part of mean-0.77
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms788
N negative terms196
N of observations984
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.25
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.14
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.29
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error982
t(b)4.27
p(b)0.00
t(a)2.44
p(a)0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.52
Treynor index (mean / b)2.56
Jensen alpha (a)0.29
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.28
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.41
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean0
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio0
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean0
Upside SD0
Downside SD0
N nonnegative terms131
N negative terms0
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.19
Mean of criterion0
SD of predictor0.42
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations45
Minimum0.76
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.16
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.07
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high6
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.57
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations984
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low126
Percentage of outliers low0.13
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high160
Percentage of outliers high0.16
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.04
Quartile 10.06
Median0.08
Quartile 30.12
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.05
Mean of quarter 20.07
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.18
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.03
Quartile 30.07
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.06
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.23
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.50
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-335903968
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)28
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.52
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.37
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.45
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.50
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal13.23
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 15 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SVXY long550.4Jul 2, 2019Aug 1, 2019$435
SVXY long591May 22, 2019May 24, 2019($367)
SVXY long591May 17, 2019May 20, 2019($1)
SVXY long609Apr 3, 2019May 7, 2019($385)
SVXY long624.7Mar 12, 2019Mar 25, 2019($976)
SVXY long570Aug 17, 2018Oct 5, 2018$1,471
SVXY long2280Aug 15, 2018Aug 16, 2018$410
SVXY long2310Aug 1, 2018Aug 14, 2018($348)
SVXY long2281.6Jul 13, 2018Jul 31, 2018$183
SVXY long2357.3Jul 9, 2018Jul 12, 2018$165
SVXY long2310Jun 6, 2018Jun 20, 2018$370
SVXY long2335.7May 24, 2018May 25, 2018($218)
SVXY long2410May 11, 2018May 16, 2018($25)
SVXY long2540Apr 18, 2018Apr 19, 2018($128)
XIV long318.2Aug 28, 2017Oct 6, 2017$5,739
XIV long315Aug 15, 2017Aug 17, 2017($1,077)
XIV long355.9Jul 13, 2017Aug 11, 2017($3,231)
XIV long361.2Jun 29, 2017Jun 30, 2017($778)
XIV long368.6May 22, 2017Jun 28, 2017$3,615
XIV long410.8Apr 27, 2017May 18, 2017($2,907)
XIV long449.8Nov 10, 2016Mar 24, 2017$12,974
XIV long450.8Oct 19, 2016Oct 28, 2016$221
XIV long482Sep 19, 2016Oct 13, 2016$521
XIV long523.3Jun 30, 2016Sep 14, 2016$3,914
XIV long454.5Mar 4, 2016Jun 13, 2016$2,922

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.