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Wampum Capital LLC

Futures · Started Feb 2016

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
-3.3%
Max Drawdown
22.3%
Trades
156
Win Trades
44.2%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
2.3%

About this strategy

I trade Nasdaq Futures with a target to trade 1-2 trades/day. No overnight positions.

***Also, I recommend clients trade a maximum of 2 nasdaq contracts per trade based on my risk management strategies and equity size of less than 50k.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20167.37.3-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.87.5-4.6-14.9-4.4
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began2/13/2016
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age131 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades156
# Profitable69
% Profitable44.2%
Avg trade duration48.6 minutes
Max peak-to-valley drawdown22.3%
drawdown periodNov 10, 2016 - Dec 20, 2016
Cumul. Return-2.9%
Avg win$464
Avg loss$301

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio-0.39
Sortino Ratio-0.56
Calmar Ratio0.79

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.03
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life305.5%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-24.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)-3.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)-0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)2.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity29.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss10.5%
Chance of 20% account loss1.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)366
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)912
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)540

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$301
Avg Win$464
# Winners69
Sum Trade PL (losers)$26,207
Sum Trade PL (winners)$32,029
Num Months Winners3
# Losers87
% Winners44.2%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table130

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)48.63
Avg Position Time (hrs)0.81
Avg Trade Length0
Last Trade Ago3616

Regression

Alpha-0.01
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.79

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.02
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.01
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades7.72
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.39
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats14.39
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats23.70
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.39
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.06
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.13

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.49
SD0.34
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.44
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.21
df5
t1.02
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.28
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.08
Sortino ratio4.47
Upside Potential Ratio5.90
Upside part of mean0.65
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.49
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.34
Covariance0.02
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.90
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.13
DF error4
t(b)0.76
p(b)0.24
t(a)0.28
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.98
Treynor index (mean / b)0.54
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
Mean0.44
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.37
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.15
df5
t0.97
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.71
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.02
Sortino ratio3.83
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.60
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms3
N negative terms3
N of observations6
Mean of predictor0.33
Mean of criterion0.44
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance0.01
r0.31
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.77
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.11
DF error4
t(b)0.66
p(b)0.27
t(a)0.30
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta4.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-1.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.89
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.39
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.07
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.06
df189
t1.54
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.71
Sortino ratio3.56
Upside Potential Ratio10.23
Upside part of mean1.11
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms135
N of observations190
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.39
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error188
t(b)2.05
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.26
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)1.93
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
Mean0.37
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.98
df189
t1.48
p0.43
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.63
Sortino ratio3.36
Upside Potential Ratio10.01
Upside part of mean1.10
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms55
N negative terms135
N of observations190
Mean of predictor0.34
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.14
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.00
r0.15
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.20
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.30
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error188
t(b)2.04
p(b)0.43
t(a)1.21
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)1.85
Jensen alpha (a)0.30
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.19
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.12
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.11
df171
t0.79
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.66
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.89
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.66
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.89
Sortino ratio1.70
Upside Potential Ratio8.34
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.73
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms126
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.19
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error170
t(b)1.21
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.66
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.63
Treynor index (mean / b)1.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.16
Mean0.17
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.03
df171
t0.73
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.81
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.80
Sortino ratio1.56
Upside Potential Ratio8.17
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.74
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms46
N negative terms126
N of observations172
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.00
r0.09
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.12
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error170
t(b)1.20
p(b)0.45
t(a)0.61
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.07
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.62
Treynor index (mean / b)1.49
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations6
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.21
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high1.21
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations190
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low33
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high42
Percentage of outliers high0.22
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.28
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.07
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations172
Minimum0.96
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.18
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high36
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations1
Minimum0.08
Quartile 10.08
Median0.08
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.26
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)40
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.50
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.57
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)7.34
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.99
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.42
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.46
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.07
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs4.81
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal23.80
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.19
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.20
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.11
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.21

Trading record

Placed 176 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@NQ H7short2Dec 19, 2016Dec 19, 2016($36)
@NQ H7long2Dec 16, 2016Dec 16, 2016($266)
@NQ H7long2Dec 15, 2016Dec 15, 2016$194
@NQ H7long2Dec 14, 2016Dec 14, 2016($356)
@NQ H7long2Dec 14, 2016Dec 14, 2016($296)
@NQ H7short2Dec 13, 2016Dec 13, 2016$314
@NQ H7short2Dec 13, 2016Dec 13, 2016($396)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 12, 2016Dec 12, 2016$414
@NQ Z6long2Dec 9, 2016Dec 9, 2016($76)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 8, 2016Dec 8, 2016$114
@NQ Z6long2Dec 6, 2016Dec 6, 2016($426)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 5, 2016Dec 5, 2016($356)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 2, 2016Dec 2, 2016$104
@NQ Z6long2Dec 2, 2016Dec 2, 2016($966)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 1, 2016Dec 1, 2016($889)
@NQ Z6long2Dec 1, 2016Dec 1, 2016($836)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 30, 2016Nov 30, 2016($276)
@NQ Z6short2Nov 30, 2016Nov 30, 2016$424
@NQ Z6short2Nov 29, 2016Nov 29, 2016($195)
@NQ Z6short2Nov 29, 2016Nov 29, 2016($496)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 28, 2016Nov 28, 2016$114
@NQ Z6long2Nov 28, 2016Nov 28, 2016($226)
@NQ Z6short2Nov 22, 2016Nov 22, 2016($236)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 22, 2016Nov 22, 2016($251)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 21, 2016Nov 21, 2016($666)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 18, 2016Nov 18, 2016($332)
@NQ Z6long2Nov 17, 2016Nov 17, 2016$674
@NQ Z6long2Nov 16, 2016Nov 16, 2016$728
@NQ Z6long2Nov 15, 2016Nov 15, 2016$367
@NQ Z6long2Nov 15, 2016Nov 15, 2016($209)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.