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CORTEX AI Model

Stocks · Started Jul 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
17.0%
Max Drawdown
21.5%
Trades
1728
Win Trades
55.9%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
52.9%
Subscribe $49/mo

About this strategy

SparkTrade.io is an AI-powered platform that provides stock predictions and investment strategies for institutional investors and hedge funds. SparkTrade utilizes advanced machine learning techniques to analyze extensive financial data, offering daily long and short prediction scores for individual equities and sectors. These scores are designed to help investors identify equities that are poised for a reversal or catch-up trade. SparkTrade prediction scores are used to assist in position sizing, trading around a position, and uncovering opportunities to assist in portfolio optimization and risk management.

This model in particular is our CORTEX AI Model. On each trading day, this strategy takes SparkTrade's Top 21 Long Prediction scores for all of the 2,500+ US equities our model covers, dividing the principle equally amongst them to allocate the same dollar amount of investment into each stock for that day. The strategy takes volatility into account, adjusting the inputs to identify stocks that perform well in low or high volatility situations historically. On days where the VIX is above 25, the model switches to our high-vol CORTEX model. On days where the VIX rests below 25, our model switches to the low-vol CORTEX model. Any stocks that remain amongst our Top 21 Long Predictions day-to-day are carried over and allocated their portion of any total profits gained in the previous trading session. This model only enters into long positions.

Be sure to check out our other SparkTrade.io strategies found here on C2, including the ORION AI (All Vol Long Daily Top 21), RAPTOR AI (All Vol Long Monthly Top 21), and SYNAPSE AI (Regime-switching Top 55 Long / Top 21 Short Daily) models to see which one fits your risk tolerance and overall portfolio strategy best.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2025-1.110.2-6.70.76.22.811.8
2026-2.4-1.7-7.51.2-10.5-0.326.66.8-7.37.81.910.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began7/15/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age16 months
C2 Rank973
Rank at C2 %Top 2.7%
Rank ##19
What it tradesStocks
# Trades1728
# Profitable966
% Profitable55.9%
Avg trade duration6.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown21.5%
drawdown periodJan 14, 2026 - May 14, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)17.0%
Avg win$94
Avg loss$99

Ratios

W:L ratio1.22
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Sortino Ratio1.08
Calmar Ratio2.35

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.33
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life18.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)4.9%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)17.0%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)23.8%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity2.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss35.0%
Chance of 20% account loss8.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated100.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)780
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)784
C2 Score973
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)814

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$99
Avg Win$94
# Winners966
Sum Trade PL (losers)$75,762
Sum Trade PL (winners)$90,997
Num Months Winners9
# Losers762
% Winners55.9%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1063

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table17

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8823.45
Avg Position Time (hrs)147.06
Avg Trade Length6.10
Last Trade Ago2

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.13
Daily leverage (max)1.87

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.49
Treynor Index0.09

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-138.33
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.83
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.54
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.49
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.00

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.36
SD0.32
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.09
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df8
t0.95
p0.19
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.39
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.30
Sortino ratio2.83
Upside Potential Ratio4.60
Upside part of mean0.58
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.30
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.26
Mean of criterion0.36
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.32
Covariance-0.02
r-0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.80
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error7
t(b)-1.73
p(b)0.94
t(a)1.89
p(a)0.05
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-4.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.79
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.80
Mean0.31
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.91
df8
t0.87
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.34
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.29
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.40
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.22
Sortino ratio2.34
Upside Potential Ratio4.10
Upside part of mean0.54
Downside part of mean-0.23
Upside SD0.27
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms5
N negative terms4
N of observations9
Mean of predictor0.25
Mean of criterion0.31
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance-0.02
r-0.55
b (slope, estimate of beta)-1.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.72
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error7
t(b)-1.73
p(b)0.94
t(a)1.82
p(a)0.06
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-3.93
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.61
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.65
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.72
VaR(95%)0.11
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.14
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.37
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.47
df205
t1.31
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.69
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.74
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.68
Sortino ratio2.27
Upside Potential Ratio8.65
Upside part of mean1.39
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms95
N of observations206
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.47
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.27
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error204
t(b)5.27
p(b)0
t(a)1.03
p(a)0.15
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.79
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.33
SD0.25
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.35
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.35
df205
t1.20
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.87
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.56
Sortino ratio2.02
Upside Potential Ratio8.30
Upside part of mean1.37
Downside part of mean-1.04
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.17
N nonnegative terms111
N negative terms95
N of observations206
Mean of predictor0.18
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.18
SD of criterion0.25
Covariance0.02
r0.35
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.48
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.25
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error204
t(b)5.37
p(b)0
t(a)0.94
p(a)0.17
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.27
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.76
Treynor index (mean / b)0.70
Jensen alpha (a)0.25
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.41
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.43
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.43
df130
t1.01
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.35
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.20
Sortino ratio2.19
Upside Potential Ratio8.30
Upside part of mean1.55
Downside part of mean-1.14
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.41
SD of predictor0.21
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.02
r0.33
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.35
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)4.03
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.92
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.66
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.92
Jensen alpha (a)0.35
Mean0.37
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.29
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.28
df130
t0.91
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.06
Sortino ratio1.92
Upside Potential Ratio7.93
Upside part of mean1.53
Downside part of mean-1.16
Upside SD0.21
Downside SD0.19
N nonnegative terms71
N negative terms60
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.37
SD of predictor0.22
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.02
r0.34
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.45
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.32
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error129
t(b)4.12
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.84
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.23
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.43
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha1.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.82
Jensen alpha (a)0.32
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.90
Quartile 10.97
Median1.01
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.23
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.06
Mean of quarter 41.15
Inter Quartile Range0.10
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.46
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations206
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low5
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.95
Number of outliers high7
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.57
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.65
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03
Number of observations131
Minimum0.91
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.09
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low4
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.94
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.70
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.05
Median0.08
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.13
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations13
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.05
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.22
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.24
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations10
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.20
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.27
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-1048601088
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)120
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.2%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.40
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.42
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.44
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.35
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.94
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.67
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.49
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.63
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.27
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal14.18

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
SCSC long54Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($256)
MG long152Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($11)
JACK long214Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($87)
BPOP long19Nov 4, 2026Nov 6, 2026($98)
MATX long14Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($215)
CDP long93Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($110)
NRIM long125Nov 5, 2026Nov 6, 2026($162)
RBB long116Nov 4, 2026Nov 5, 2026$13
GDOT long245Nov 2, 2026Nov 5, 2026$80
FISI long76Nov 4, 2026Nov 5, 2026$34
HSIC long36Nov 4, 2026Nov 5, 2026$199
BKU long69Nov 4, 2026Nov 5, 2026$80
MPB long87Nov 3, 2026Nov 5, 2026$83
STT long17Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026$54
OSCR long97Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026$460
PBI long186Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026($49)
SCSC long53Nov 3, 2026Nov 4, 2026$56
OFG long59Nov 2, 2026Nov 4, 2026$111
IVZ long108Oct 30, 2026Nov 4, 2026$32
PFG long26Nov 2, 2026Nov 3, 2026($5)
OSBC long121Nov 2, 2026Nov 3, 2026$68
RBB long115Nov 2, 2026Nov 3, 2026$54
UVSP long75Oct 30, 2026Nov 3, 2026$115
CASS long56Nov 2, 2026Nov 3, 2026$70
OGS long38Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026$19
ASPN long551Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026($5)
CNXN long34Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026$74
LEA long25Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026$1
MG long147Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026($6)
EBF long136Oct 30, 2026Nov 2, 2026($60)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.