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TradeMate ES Swing

Futures · Futures · Started Jan 2018

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
28.6%
Max Drawdown
35.6%
Trades
100
Win Trades
33.0%
Profit Factor
1.40
Win Months
9.4%

Momentum

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20186.57.3-6.85.612.512.213.60.0-3.1-3.8-1.1-2.245.5
2019-12.417.74.5-3.0-13.4-8.3-8.15.831.5-0.10.00.06.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began1/22/2018
Suggested Minimum Capital$25,000
Age106 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades100
# Profitable33
% Profitable33.0%
Avg trade duration17.1 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown35.6%
drawdown periodDec 03, 2018 - July 29, 2019
Annual Return (Compounded)28.6%
Avg win$1,864
Avg loss$672

Ratios

W:L ratio1.37
Sharpe Ratio0.22
Sortino Ratio0.44
Calmar Ratio0.66

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.07
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life175.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)48.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)28.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)6.0%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity11.4%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss41.0%
Chance of 20% account loss12.0%
Chance of 30% account loss1.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated91.5%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)472
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)735
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)597

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$672
Avg Win$1,864
# Winners33
Sum Trade PL (losers)$44,998
Sum Trade PL (winners)$61,514
Num Months Winners11
# Losers67
% Winners33.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table106

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1023.50
Avg Position Time (hrs)17.06
Avg Trade Length0.70
Last Trade Ago2575

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)11.26
Daily leverage (max)17

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.05
Treynor Index0.18

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.01
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.64
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats7.62
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats13.02
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.23
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.25

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.33
SD0.40
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.79
df19
t1.06
p0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.35
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.75
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.33
Sortino ratio1.78
Upside Potential Ratio3.65
Upside part of mean0.67
Downside part of mean-0.35
Upside SD0.35
Downside SD0.18
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor0.00
Mean of criterion0.33
SD of predictor0.19
SD of criterion0.40
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.33
Mean Square Error0.16
DF error18
t(b)0.53
p(b)0.44
t(a)1.04
p(a)0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.75
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.26
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.99
Treynor index (mean / b)1.30
Jensen alpha (a)0.33
Mean0.25
SD0.38
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.65
df19
t0.87
p0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.20
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.89
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.18
Sortino ratio1.30
Upside Potential Ratio3.15
Upside part of mean0.62
Downside part of mean-0.36
Upside SD0.32
Downside SD0.20
N nonnegative terms9
N negative terms11
N of observations20
Mean of predictor-0.02
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.20
SD of criterion0.38
Covariance0.01
r0.12
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.23
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.26
Mean Square Error0.15
DF error18
t(b)0.50
p(b)0.44
t(a)0.86
p(a)0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.73
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.89
Treynor index (mean / b)1.12
Jensen alpha (a)0.26
VaR(95%)0.15
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.13
Mean0.28
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.99
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.99
df455
t1.30
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.47
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.50
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.47
Sortino ratio2.05
Upside Potential Ratio8.40
Upside part of mean1.16
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms380
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.03
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.32
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.16
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error454
t(b)3.91
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.69
Treynor index (mean / b)0.87
Jensen alpha (a)0.27
Mean0.24
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df455
t1.15
p0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio1.72
Upside Potential Ratio8.02
Upside part of mean1.13
Downside part of mean-0.89
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms76
N negative terms380
N of observations456
Mean of predictor0.02
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.31
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.24
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error454
t(b)3.87
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.14
p(a)0.13
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.64
Treynor index (mean / b)0.78
Jensen alpha (a)0.24
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.09
SD0.29
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.30
df130
t0.21
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.07
Sortino ratio0.61
Upside Potential Ratio6.64
Upside part of mean0.95
Downside part of mean-0.87
Upside SD0.25
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms114
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.08
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.29
Covariance0.01
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.36
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)2.07
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.14
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.70
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.74
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.86
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.05
SD0.28
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.17
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.17
df130
t0.12
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.60
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.94
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.60
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.94
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio6.29
Upside part of mean0.92
Downside part of mean-0.88
Upside SD0.24
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms17
N negative terms114
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.07
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.28
Covariance0.01
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.34
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.08
DF error129
t(b)2.01
p(b)0.39
t(a)0.06
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.67
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.76
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.81
Treynor index (mean / b)0.14
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations20
Minimum0.86
Quartile 10.96
Median1.00
Quartile 31.08
Maximum1.29
Mean of quarter 10.91
Mean of quarter 20.98
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.19
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.05
Mean of outliers high1.29
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.14
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.14
Number of observations456
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.15
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low44
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high59
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low31
Percentage of outliers low0.24
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.53
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.03

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations2
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.07
Median0.14
Quartile 30.21
Maximum0.28
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.14
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.31
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.07
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.31
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.21
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.31
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.12
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.48
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.26
Inter Quartile Range0.12
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-19
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)238
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.17
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.78
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.35
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.31
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.00
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.44
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal9.14
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.31
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.31
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.23

Trading record

Placed 141 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@ES U9long3Sep 19, 2019Sep 19, 2019($512)
@ES U9long3Sep 11, 2019Sep 12, 2019$3,051
@ES U9long3Sep 4, 2019Sep 6, 2019$6,726
@ES U9long3Aug 29, 2019Aug 29, 2019($362)
@ES U9long3Aug 16, 2019Aug 16, 2019($474)
@ES U9long3Aug 13, 2019Aug 13, 2019($662)
@ES U9long3Aug 8, 2019Aug 9, 2019$3,126
@ES U9long3Jul 26, 2019Jul 29, 2019$201
@ES U9long3Jul 24, 2019Jul 24, 2019($624)
@ES U9long3Jul 23, 2019Jul 24, 2019($324)
@ES U9long3Jul 10, 2019Jul 10, 2019($774)
@ES U9long3Jul 1, 2019Jul 1, 2019($887)
@ES U9long3Jun 28, 2019Jun 28, 2019($624)
@ES U9long3Jun 20, 2019Jun 20, 2019($549)
@ES U9long3Jun 18, 2019Jun 19, 2019$539
@ES U9long3Jun 17, 2019Jun 17, 2019($437)
@ES M9long3Jun 5, 2019Jun 5, 2019($512)
@ES M9long3Jun 4, 2019Jun 4, 2019($1,112)
@ES M9long3May 16, 2019May 17, 2019($2,537)
@ES M9long3May 15, 2019May 15, 2019($512)
@ES M9long3May 14, 2019May 14, 2019($924)
@ES M9long3May 10, 2019May 10, 2019($549)
@ES M9long3May 3, 2019May 3, 2019($549)
@ES M9long3Apr 26, 2019Apr 30, 2019$464
@ES M9long3Apr 23, 2019Apr 24, 2019$89
@ES M9long3Apr 12, 2019Apr 12, 2019($512)
@ES M9long3Apr 10, 2019Apr 10, 2019($474)
@ES M9long3Apr 5, 2019Apr 5, 2019($699)
@ES M9long3Mar 29, 2019Mar 29, 2019($774)
@ES M9long3Mar 26, 2019Mar 26, 2019($587)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.