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PV Silver on hold

Futures · Started Dec 2012

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
2.7%
Max Drawdown
29.2%
Trades
512
Win Trades
57.6%
Profit Factor
1.10
Win Months
12.0%

About this strategy

Intra-day system for silver future markets. Max 2 contracts (SI) traded, separate robots. Not a martingale system. Check more info from: http://pvoodooatc2.blogspot.fi/2012/12/pv-silver.html and / or http://pvoodoo.com/PV-Silver.html . Limited number of subscribers allowed not to effect the thin silver market and results.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20121.91.9
201310.92.3-3.51.411.39.40.9-7.50.1-8.12.0-5.511.9
2014-0.15.63.54.13.10.8-3.23.13.26.62.6-6.025.2
2015-9.8-1.60.2-11.4-1.71.60.00.00.00.00.00.0-21.2
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began12/10/2012
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age169 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades512
# Profitable295
% Profitable57.6%
Avg trade duration4.7 hours
Max peak-to-valley drawdown29.2%
drawdown periodNov 20, 2014 - May 22, 2015
Annual Return (Compounded)2.7%
Avg win$603
Avg loss$751

Ratios

W:L ratio1.09
Sharpe Ratio-0.09
Sortino Ratio-0.11
Calmar Ratio0.18

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life437.4%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-86.6%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)2.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.9%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity36.3%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)—

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated99.3%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$751
Avg Win$603
# Winners295
Sum Trade PL (losers)$163,010
Sum Trade PL (winners)$177,903
Num Months Winners20
# Losers217
% Winners57.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table167

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)282.90
Avg Position Time (hrs)4.72
Avg Trade Length0.20
Last Trade Ago4150

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.01
Treynor Index-0.40

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.01
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.02
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades51.69
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.34
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats48.78
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats33.38
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.66
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.47
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.02

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.03
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.26
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.26
df57
t0.57
p0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.63
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.64
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.44
Upside Potential Ratio1.84
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms42
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error56
t(b)-0.08
p(b)0.53
t(a)0.56
p(a)0.29
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)-2.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.03
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df57
t0.44
p0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.70
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.32
Upside Potential Ratio1.70
Upside part of mean0.14
Downside part of mean-0.11
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms16
N negative terms42
N of observations58
Mean of predictor0.10
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.09
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance-0.00
r-0.01
b (slope, estimate of beta)-0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error56
t(b)-0.09
p(b)0.54
t(a)0.44
p(a)0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.38
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.15
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.47
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.03
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.27
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.27
df1286
t0.59
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.62
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.15
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.62
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.15
Sortino ratio0.36
Upside Potential Ratio5.26
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.44
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms292
N negative terms995
N of observations1287
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1285
t(b)0.72
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.54
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)1.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
Mean0.03
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.20
df1286
t0.45
p0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.68
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.09
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.68
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.09
Sortino ratio0.28
Upside Potential Ratio5.15
Upside part of mean0.47
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms292
N negative terms995
N of observations1287
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.03
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.02
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1285
t(b)0.73
p(b)0.49
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.13
Treynor index (mean / b)1.22
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.30
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.29
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.07
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6637360854859776
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)-1.12270970318525e+31
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations58
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.97
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.21
Mean of outliers high1.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.49
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.05
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.05
Number of observations1287
Minimum0.95
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low246
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high294
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.39
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.20
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations4
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.08
Quartile 30.16
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.14
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.15
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations24
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.25
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.04
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.22
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.29
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.21
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.92
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.12
Expected Shortfall (regression method)1.02
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)183
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.25
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.25
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0.76
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.22
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal3.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 460 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
QSI N5long1Jun 9, 2015Jun 9, 2015($233)
QSI N5long1Jun 2, 2015Jun 2, 2015($258)
QSI N5long1Jun 1, 2015Jun 2, 2015($8)
QSI N5short1Jun 1, 2015Jun 1, 2015$1,467
QSI N5long1May 29, 2015May 29, 2015($158)
QSI N5long1May 28, 2015May 28, 2015$492
QSI N5short1May 28, 2015May 28, 2015$567
QSI N5long1May 28, 2015May 28, 2015$117
QSI N5long1May 26, 2015May 26, 2015$292
QSI N5long1May 26, 2015May 26, 2015($333)
QSI N5short1May 22, 2015May 22, 2015$467
QSI N5long1May 19, 2015May 19, 2015($2,058)
QSI N5short1May 15, 2015May 15, 2015($408)
QSI N5short1May 12, 2015May 12, 2015($258)
QSI N5long1May 11, 2015May 11, 2015($108)
QSI N5short1May 8, 2015May 8, 2015($58)
QSI N5long1May 8, 2015May 8, 2015$242
QSI N5long1May 8, 2015May 8, 2015($533)
QSI N5long1May 8, 2015May 8, 2015($458)
QSI N5long1May 7, 2015May 7, 2015$1,092
QSI N5short1May 6, 2015May 6, 2015$367
QSI N5short1May 5, 2015May 5, 2015($58)
QSI K5short1Apr 30, 2015Apr 30, 2015($508)
QSI K5short1Apr 29, 2015Apr 29, 2015$342
QSI K5short1Apr 28, 2015Apr 28, 2015($58)
QSI K5long1Apr 28, 2015Apr 28, 2015$117
QSI K5short1Apr 27, 2015Apr 27, 2015($1,058)
QSI K5long1Apr 24, 2015Apr 24, 2015($808)
QSI K5long1Apr 22, 2015Apr 22, 2015($1,133)
QSI K5short1Apr 22, 2015Apr 22, 2015$167

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.