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AgoraOpus US-EQ Next 10
(124653266)

Created by: AgoraOpus AgoraOpus
Started: 07/2019
Stocks
Last trade: 5 days ago
Trading style: Equity Non-hedged Equity

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $89.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Non-hedged Equity
Category: Equity

Non-hedged Equity

Predominantly long equities, although some hedging with short sales of stocks and/or stock index options. Commonly known as "stock-pickers."
5.3%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(49.2%)
Max Drawdown
199
Num Trades
57.8%
Win Trades
1.2 : 1
Profit Factor
60.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019                                          (2.2%)+1.0%(2.7%)(3.5%)+4.3%+0.2%(3.1%)
2020+2.7%(7.9%)(27.3%)+19.3%+13.3%(4.5%)+15.2%+6.8%+0.5%                  +9.7%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 120 hours.

Trading Record

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/14/20 9:39 NOW SERVICENOW LONG 11 452.77 9/21 9:39 448.15 0.22%
Trade id #131158411
Max drawdown($118)
Time9/17/20 0:00
Quant open11
Worst price442.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.22%
($51)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
9/8/20 9:39 FBHS FORTUNE BRANDS HOME LONG 63 81.24 9/21 9:39 81.86 0.11%
Trade id #131058917
Max drawdown($56)
Time9/8/20 9:44
Quant open63
Worst price80.35
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
$38
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.26
9/8/20 9:39 SQ SQUARE INC LONG 36 141.57 9/14 9:39 140.32 0.52%
Trade id #131058934
Max drawdown($263)
Time9/11/20 0:00
Quant open36
Worst price134.26
Drawdown as % of equity-0.52%
($46)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.72
9/8/20 9:39 IBP INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS LONG 59 87.67 9/14 9:39 95.13 0.04%
Trade id #131058923
Max drawdown($21)
Time9/8/20 9:43
Quant open59
Worst price87.30
Drawdown as % of equity-0.04%
$439
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.18
9/8/20 9:39 HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES LONG 185 28.11 9/14 9:39 31.32 n/a $590
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.70
8/24/20 9:39 DG DOLLAR GENERAL LONG 30 199.48 9/14 9:39 199.92 0.51%
Trade id #130755937
Max drawdown($261)
Time9/8/20 0:00
Quant open30
Worst price190.76
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
$12
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.60
7/27/20 9:39 CASY CASEY'S GENERAL STORES LONG 43 166.25 9/14 9:39 177.33 0.34%
Trade id #130290130
Max drawdown($168)
Time7/31/20 0:00
Quant open30
Worst price157.05
Drawdown as % of equity-0.34%
$476
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.86
8/31/20 9:39 UPS UNITED PARCEL SERVICE LONG 37 162.95 9/8 9:39 158.49 0.58%
Trade id #130892759
Max drawdown($307)
Time9/4/20 0:00
Quant open37
Worst price154.63
Drawdown as % of equity-0.58%
($166)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.74
8/24/20 9:39 FAST FASTENAL LONG 126 48.46 9/8 9:39 44.94 0.94%
Trade id #130755942
Max drawdown($479)
Time9/8/20 9:31
Quant open126
Worst price44.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.94%
($446)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.52
8/24/20 9:39 BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB LONG 98 62.39 9/8 9:39 59.25 0.62%
Trade id #130755930
Max drawdown($314)
Time9/8/20 9:39
Quant open98
Worst price59.17
Drawdown as % of equity-0.62%
($309)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.96
7/20/20 9:39 DPZ DOMINO'S PIZZA LONG 18 389.69 9/8 9:39 388.32 0.35%
Trade id #130165012
Max drawdown($186)
Time9/4/20 0:00
Quant open14
Worst price376.33
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
($24)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.36
8/24/20 9:39 IBP INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS LONG 62 88.24 8/31 9:39 86.40 0.19%
Trade id #130755948
Max drawdown($105)
Time8/31/20 9:37
Quant open62
Worst price86.54
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
($115)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.24
8/24/20 9:39 HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES LONG 163 34.03 8/31 9:39 32.19 0.58%
Trade id #130755945
Max drawdown($317)
Time8/27/20 0:00
Quant open163
Worst price32.08
Drawdown as % of equity-0.58%
($303)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.26
8/10/20 10:39 LEN LENNAR LONG 88 75.99 8/31 9:39 75.10 0.36%
Trade id #130539034
Max drawdown($187)
Time8/12/20 0:00
Quant open67
Worst price73.28
Drawdown as % of equity-0.36%
($80)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.76
8/3/20 9:39 TPH TRI POINTE GROUP INC LONG 385 17.23 8/31 9:39 17.09 0.25%
Trade id #130418651
Max drawdown($129)
Time8/7/20 0:00
Quant open294
Worst price16.66
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
($62)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.70
8/17/20 9:39 KBH KB HOME LONG 182 36.51 8/24 9:39 37.41 0.2%
Trade id #130647863
Max drawdown($105)
Time8/17/20 9:50
Quant open182
Worst price35.93
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$160
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.64
8/10/20 10:39 WSO WATSCO LONG 27 239.16 8/24 9:39 240.00 0.2%
Trade id #130539041
Max drawdown($103)
Time8/12/20 0:00
Quant open21
Worst price234.21
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
$22
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.54
7/13/20 9:39 PHM PULTEGROUP LONG 178 36.83 8/24 9:39 46.16 0.35%
Trade id #130045535
Max drawdown($164)
Time7/14/20 0:00
Quant open146
Worst price33.71
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
$1,656
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.56
8/10/20 10:39 AMRC AMERESCO LONG 168 30.53 8/17 9:39 31.09 0.22%
Trade id #130539020
Max drawdown($115)
Time8/11/20 0:00
Quant open168
Worst price29.84
Drawdown as % of equity-0.22%
$91
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.36
8/3/20 9:39 HOV HOVNANIAN ENTERPRISES LONG 211 23.75 8/17 9:39 28.86 n/a $1,074
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.22
7/27/20 9:39 IBP INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS LONG 63 78.03 8/17 9:39 88.51 0.14%
Trade id #130290137
Max drawdown($68)
Time7/31/20 0:00
Quant open62
Worst price76.90
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
$659
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.26
7/20/20 9:39 AAPL APPLE LONG 14 385.05 8/10 10:39 441.39 0.82%
Trade id #130165002
Max drawdown($398)
Time7/24/20 0:00
Quant open14
Worst price356.58
Drawdown as % of equity-0.82%
$789
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.28
7/13/20 9:39 TMHC TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORP LONG 244 21.66 8/10 10:39 24.18 0.7%
Trade id #130045538
Max drawdown($326)
Time7/14/20 0:00
Quant open235
Worst price20.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.70%
$610
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.88
7/13/20 9:39 AMZN AMAZON.COM LONG 1 3263.00 8/10 10:39 3134.82 0.77%
Trade id #130045518
Max drawdown($375)
Time7/24/20 0:00
Quant open1
Worst price2888.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.77%
($128)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.02
7/6/20 9:39 CVS CVS HEALTH CORP LONG 83 64.90 8/10 10:39 65.30 0.73%
Trade id #129922733
Max drawdown($335)
Time7/9/20 0:00
Quant open74
Worst price60.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.73%
$31
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.66
7/27/20 9:39 NVDA NVIDIA LONG 11 414.16 8/3 9:39 431.38 0.13%
Trade id #130290140
Max drawdown($63)
Time7/28/20 0:00
Quant open11
Worst price408.37
Drawdown as % of equity-0.13%
$189
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.22
7/13/20 9:39 BDX BECTON DICKINSON LONG 20 257.68 8/3 9:39 279.62 0.06%
Trade id #130045523
Max drawdown($25)
Time7/13/20 15:37
Quant open19
Worst price255.85
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
$439
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.40
7/20/20 9:39 COST COSTCO WHOLESALE LONG 16 324.10 7/27 9:39 327.42 0.05%
Trade id #130165007
Max drawdown($22)
Time7/20/20 11:01
Quant open16
Worst price322.66
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
$53
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.32
7/13/20 9:39 LEN LENNAR LONG 78 65.51 7/27 9:39 70.10 0.54%
Trade id #130045532
Max drawdown($255)
Time7/14/20 0:00
Quant open78
Worst price62.24
Drawdown as % of equity-0.54%
$356
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.56
6/29/20 9:39 DHI DR HORTON LONG 88 52.44 7/20 9:39 63.03 0.01%
Trade id #129800706
Max drawdown($2)
Time6/29/20 9:48
Quant open86
Worst price52.35
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
$930
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.76

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    7/29/2019
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $15,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    420.24
  • Age
    14 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    199
  • # Profitable
    115
  • % Profitable
    57.80%
  • Avg trade duration
    20.2 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    49.18%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 19, 2020 - March 23, 2020
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    5.3%
  • Avg win
    $331.33
  • Avg loss
    $396.44
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $28,072
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $28,746
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.17:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.23
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.33
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.224
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -3.73%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.84720
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    9.19%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    5.3%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    3.40%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.07%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.053%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    8.9%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    26.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $398
  • Avg Win
    $333
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $33,420.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    15
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $38,265.000
  • # Winners
    115
  • Num Months Winners
    9
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    368
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    84
  • % Winners
    57.8%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    29075.30
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    484.59
  • Avg Trade Length
    20.2 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    0
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.00
  • Daily leverage (max)
    1.82
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.00
  • Beta
    1.05
  • Treynor Index
    0.03
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.28
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    1.084
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.366
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.517
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    1.043
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.11984
  • SD
    0.39774
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.30130
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.27803
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    0.28848
  • p
    0.38944
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.75731
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.34520
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.77271
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.32877
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.43849
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.03201
  • Upside part of mean
    0.55536
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.43552
  • Upside SD
    0.26518
  • Downside SD
    0.27331
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12232
  • Mean of criterion
    0.11984
  • SD of predictor
    0.24356
  • SD of criterion
    0.39774
  • Covariance
    0.08869
  • r
    0.91548
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.49500
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.06303
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02846
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    6.82597
  • p(b)
    0.00004
  • t(a)
    -0.35367
  • p(a)
    0.63414
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.99955
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.99046
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.46619
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.34012
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.08016
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.06303
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.04376
  • SD
    0.41528
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.10538
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.09724
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    0.10089
  • p
    0.46081
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.94479
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.15048
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.95032
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.14480
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.14128
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.68966
  • Upside part of mean
    0.52340
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.47963
  • Upside SD
    0.24695
  • Downside SD
    0.30976
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.09459
  • Mean of criterion
    0.04376
  • SD of predictor
    0.24587
  • SD of criterion
    0.41528
  • Covariance
    0.09289
  • r
    0.90981
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.53671
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10160
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03300
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    6.57657
  • p(b)
    0.00005
  • t(a)
    -0.53184
  • p(a)
    0.69614
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.00812
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    2.06530
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.53375
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.33055
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.02848
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.10160
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.17596
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.21546
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07816
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.15953
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.75554
  • Quartile 1
    0.97336
  • Median
    1.01085
  • Quartile 3
    1.07147
  • Maximum
    1.19305
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.87959
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99095
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.04826
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.13390
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.09811
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.09091
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.75554
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.52381
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.10355
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.11036
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.74128
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.25634
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    1.17003
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.07053
  • Quartile 1
    0.12961
  • Median
    0.18870
  • Quartile 3
    0.24778
  • Maximum
    0.30686
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.07053
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.30686
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.11817
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.04465
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.04473
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.14578
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.14578
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.20762
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.19208
  • SD
    0.42299
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.45410
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.45273
  • df
    249.00000
  • t
    0.44358
  • p
    0.32887
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.55319
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.46050
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.55412
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.45957
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.63476
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.97194
  • Upside part of mean
    2.10974
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.91766
  • Upside SD
    0.29458
  • Downside SD
    0.30261
  • N nonnegative terms
    149.00000
  • N negative terms
    101.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    250.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18016
  • Mean of criterion
    0.19208
  • SD of predictor
    0.34941
  • SD of criterion
    0.42299
  • Covariance
    0.12545
  • r
    0.84879
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.02754
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00700
  • Mean Square Error
    0.05022
  • DF error
    248.00000
  • t(b)
    25.28030
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.03034
  • p(a)
    0.48791
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.94749
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.10760
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.44512
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.45905
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.18693
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00696
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.10224
  • SD
    0.42584
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.24008
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.23936
  • df
    249.00000
  • t
    0.23452
  • p
    0.40739
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.76667
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.24646
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.76720
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.24592
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.32280
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.53115
  • Upside part of mean
    2.06853
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.96630
  • Upside SD
    0.28345
  • Downside SD
    0.31672
  • N nonnegative terms
    149.00000
  • N negative terms
    101.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    250.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11879
  • Mean of criterion
    0.10224
  • SD of predictor
    0.35185
  • SD of criterion
    0.42584
  • Covariance
    0.12816
  • r
    0.85534
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.03520
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.02073
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04887
  • DF error
    248.00000
  • t(b)
    26.00070
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    -0.09158
  • p(a)
    0.53645
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.95678
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.11362
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.46654
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.42508
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.09876
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.02073
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04198
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05241
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01428
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03150
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    250.00000
  • Minimum
    0.84320
  • Quartile 1
    0.99272
  • Median
    1.00183
  • Quartile 3
    1.00935
  • Maximum
    1.15497
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97270
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99841
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00525
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02661
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01663
  • Number outliers low
    17.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.06800
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.94289
  • Number of outliers high
    13.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05200
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.06193
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.37374
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02439
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.04695
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.43140
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02614
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.05457
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00157
  • Quartile 1
    0.02088
  • Median
    0.06785
  • Quartile 3
    0.08507
  • Maximum
    0.48044
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00516
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.05044
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.07442
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.28808
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06419
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.14286
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.48044
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.10739
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.10765
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.22406
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.37366
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.05407
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.31746
  • SD
    0.55814
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.56878
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.56549
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.40219
  • p
    0.48237
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.20498
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.34036
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.20717
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.33815
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.80141
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.71116
  • Upside part of mean
    3.05458
  • Downside part of mean
    -2.73712
  • Upside SD
    0.39065
  • Downside SD
    0.39612
  • N nonnegative terms
    77.00000
  • N negative terms
    54.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.18060
  • Mean of criterion
    0.31746
  • SD of predictor
    0.46760
  • SD of criterion
    0.55814
  • Covariance
    0.22471
  • r
    0.86099
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.02769
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.13185
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08122
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    19.22610
  • p(b)
    0.03045
  • t(a)
    0.32707
  • p(a)
    0.48168
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.92193
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.13344
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.66577
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.92948
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.30890
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.13185
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16149
  • SD
    0.56217
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.28726
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.28560
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.20312
  • p
    0.49109
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.48525
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.05880
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.48643
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.05762
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.38812
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.16784
  • Upside part of mean
    2.98235
  • Downside part of mean
    -2.82086
  • Upside SD
    0.37497
  • Downside SD
    0.41607
  • N nonnegative terms
    77.00000
  • N negative terms
    54.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07111
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16149
  • SD of predictor
    0.47096
  • SD of criterion
    0.56217
  • Covariance
    0.22977
  • r
    0.86785
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.03591
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.08782
  • Mean Square Error
    0.07861
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    19.83970
  • p(b)
    0.02826
  • t(a)
    0.22147
  • p(a)
    0.48759
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.04200
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.93261
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.13922
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.69673
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.87237
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.15589
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.08782
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05494
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06848
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02087
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04459
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.84320
  • Quartile 1
    0.98871
  • Median
    1.00275
  • Quartile 3
    1.01344
  • Maximum
    1.15497
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96178
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99705
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00784
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03837
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02473
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.91553
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.07822
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.24428
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03463
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.05729
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.35046
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.04022
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.07540
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00157
  • Quartile 1
    0.00875
  • Median
    0.03302
  • Quartile 3
    0.07442
  • Maximum
    0.48044
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00516
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03302
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.07442
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.48044
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06567
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.48044
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -248428000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    33
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.16819
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.17526
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.36478
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.36478
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.55914

Strategy Description

Using advanced statistical models, 10 companies are selected. Long only, rebalanced on Mondays.

If you want to learn more about the strategy, please take a look at the website on portfolio.construction.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2019-07-29
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
# Trades
199
# Profitable
115
% Profitable
57.8%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
0.847
Sharpe Ratio
0.23
Sortino Ratio
0.33
Beta
1.05
Alpha
-0.00
Leverage
1.00 Average
1.82 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.