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Featured Strategy Easiest Followed by live capital $451,000 Hypothetical

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Ethos MES Day Trade
(130717313)

Created by: EthosPortfolio EthosPortfolio
Started: 08/2020
Futures
Last trade: 1,254 days ago
Trading style: Futures Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $125.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
-0.2%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(9.0%)
Max Drawdown
138
Num Trades
40.6%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
4.4%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020                                                 +1.4%(1.6%)+1.7%(2%)  -  (0.6%)
2021  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2022  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -                                                  0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/17/20 13:04 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3615.50 11/17 15:21 3605.50 0.24%
Trade id #132304891
Max drawdown($117)
Time11/17/20 15:20
Quant open2
Worst price3603.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 ($102)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/17/20 10:19 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3594.50 11/17 11:00 3606.50 0.27%
Trade id #132299868
Max drawdown($132)
Time11/17/20 10:59
Quant open2
Worst price3607.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 ($122)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/12/20 18:03 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3537.75 11/13 7:00 3560.00 0.39%
Trade id #132234081
Max drawdown($195)
Time11/12/20 21:05
Quant open2
Worst price3518.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.39%
 $221
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/12/20 12:11 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3553.50 11/12 16:05 3537.50 0.82%
Trade id #132226993
Max drawdown($405)
Time11/12/20 15:08
Quant open2
Worst price3513.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.82%
 ($162)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 7:10 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3629.75 11/9 7:38 3619.75 0.25%
Trade id #132145334
Max drawdown($125)
Time11/9/20 7:13
Quant open2
Worst price3617.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 ($102)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 5:02 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3551.00 11/9 5:26 3549.75 0.05%
Trade id #132143417
Max drawdown($22)
Time11/9/20 5:26
Quant open2
Worst price3548.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($15)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 4:54 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3551.00 11/9 4:58 3548.75 0.06%
Trade id #132143316
Max drawdown($27)
Time11/9/20 4:57
Quant open2
Worst price3548.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($25)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 4:08 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3552.50 11/9 4:28 3551.00 0.11%
Trade id #132142753
Max drawdown($55)
Time11/9/20 4:28
Quant open2
Worst price3547.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 ($17)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 3:08 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3555.25 11/9 3:28 3547.75 0.17%
Trade id #132142107
Max drawdown($85)
Time11/9/20 3:28
Quant open2
Worst price3546.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
 ($77)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 3:02 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3551.00 11/9 3:04 3548.00 0.06%
Trade id #132142006
Max drawdown($30)
Time11/9/20 3:04
Quant open2
Worst price3548.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($32)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 2:04 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3555.25 11/9 2:26 3552.00 0.07%
Trade id #132141258
Max drawdown($35)
Time11/9/20 2:26
Quant open2
Worst price3551.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($35)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 1:50 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3553.75 11/9 1:52 3551.50 0.05%
Trade id #132141065
Max drawdown($23)
Time11/9/20 1:52
Quant open2
Worst price3551.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
 ($25)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 1:22 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3554.50 11/9 1:32 3551.50 0.06%
Trade id #132140747
Max drawdown($32)
Time11/9/20 1:30
Quant open2
Worst price3551.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 ($32)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 0:38 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3563.75 11/9 0:46 3561.75 0.07%
Trade id #132140457
Max drawdown($37)
Time11/9/20 0:46
Quant open2
Worst price3560.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($22)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/9/20 0:24 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3563.75 11/9 0:32 3560.00 0.07%
Trade id #132140375
Max drawdown($37)
Time11/9/20 0:32
Quant open2
Worst price3560.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($40)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/8/20 23:48 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3563.00 11/8 23:50 3562.00 0.02%
Trade id #132140030
Max drawdown($10)
Time11/8/20 23:50
Quant open2
Worst price3562.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($12)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/8/20 23:34 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3561.00 11/8 23:46 3562.00 n/a $8
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/8/20 22:46 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3554.25 11/8 23:16 3560.00 0.01%
Trade id #132139510
Max drawdown($7)
Time11/8/20 22:49
Quant open2
Worst price3553.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.01%
 $56
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/8/20 21:02 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3552.50 11/8 21:16 3550.75 0.07%
Trade id #132138649
Max drawdown($35)
Time11/8/20 21:16
Quant open2
Worst price3549.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 ($20)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/8/20 20:28 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 2 3555.00 11/8 20:30 3554.25 0.02%
Trade id #132138349
Max drawdown($8)
Time11/8/20 20:30
Quant open2
Worst price3554.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($10)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/5/20 21:51 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3490.50 11/6 9:00 3500.75 0.38%
Trade id #132105867
Max drawdown($190)
Time11/6/20 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price3509.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.38%
 ($105)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/4/20 3:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3342.50 11/4 5:00 3379.50 1.29%
Trade id #132064728
Max drawdown($652)
Time11/4/20 4:37
Quant open2
Worst price3407.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.29%
 ($372)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/3/20 14:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3349.75 11/3 16:07 3352.75 0.62%
Trade id #132055937
Max drawdown($315)
Time11/3/20 15:54
Quant open2
Worst price3381.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.62%
 ($32)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
11/2/20 13:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3292.75 11/2 15:48 3288.75 0.22%
Trade id #132024851
Max drawdown($112)
Time11/2/20 15:31
Quant open2
Worst price3304.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.22%
 $38
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/29/20 19:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3270.75 10/30 10:51 3240.25 0.51%
Trade id #131979190
Max drawdown($255)
Time10/30/20 9:33
Quant open2
Worst price3296.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.51%
 $303
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/29/20 8:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3258.00 10/29 10:00 3278.00 0.49%
Trade id #131963554
Max drawdown($250)
Time10/29/20 9:56
Quant open2
Worst price3283.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.49%
 ($202)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/27/20 18:17 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3358.50 10/28 9:45 3326.00 0.24%
Trade id #131930408
Max drawdown($122)
Time10/28/20 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price3370.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 $323
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/27/20 11:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3388.25 10/27 15:18 3384.00 0.26%
Trade id #131920737
Max drawdown($130)
Time10/27/20 13:33
Quant open2
Worst price3401.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
 $41
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/25/20 18:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3444.00 10/26 11:42 3385.50 0.06%
Trade id #131882857
Max drawdown($30)
Time10/26/20 0:00
Quant open2
Worst price3447.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.06%
 $583
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
10/23/20 10:00 @MESZ0 MICRO E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 2 3453.50 10/23 16:04 3453.00 0.1%
Trade id #131865009
Max drawdown($50)
Time10/23/20 15:59
Quant open2
Worst price3458.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
 $3
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.88
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    8/20/2020
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $50,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    1342.49
  • Age
    45 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    138
  • # Profitable
    56
  • % Profitable
    40.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    2.5 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    9.04%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 17, 2020 - Oct 19, 2020
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -0.2%
  • Avg win
    $286.61
  • Avg loss
    $183.01
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $51,050
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $51,050
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.07:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.52
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.74
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.361
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -50.42%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.03040
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    49.39%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    0
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -0.2%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    9.10%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.98%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.002%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    0.6%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    4.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    99.28%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $183
  • Avg Win
    $287
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $15,007.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    45
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $16,050.000
  • # Winners
    56
  • Num Months Winners
    2
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    82
  • % Winners
    40.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    147.65
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    2.46
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1254
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    2.56
  • Daily leverage (max)
    6.61
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.01
  • Beta
    0.01
  • Treynor Index
    -0.95
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.61
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -15.268
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.715
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.371
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.065
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.00269
  • SD
    0.07356
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.03662
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.03253
  • df
    7.00000
  • t
    0.02990
  • p
    0.48849
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.36518
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.43589
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.36799
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.43304
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.07243
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.90634
  • Upside part of mean
    0.07091
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.06822
  • Upside SD
    0.05790
  • Downside SD
    0.03720
  • N nonnegative terms
    1.00000
  • N negative terms
    7.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    8.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.44989
  • Mean of criterion
    0.00269
  • SD of predictor
    0.36924
  • SD of criterion
    0.07356
  • Covariance
    -0.00634
  • r
    -0.23324
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.04647
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.02360
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00597
  • DF error
    6.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.58753
  • p(b)
    0.71086
  • t(a)
    0.23343
  • p(a)
    0.41159
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.24000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14707
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.22379
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.27099
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.05797
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.02360
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.00037
  • SD
    0.07253
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00508
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00451
  • df
    7.00000
  • t
    0.00415
  • p
    0.49840
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.39549
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.40543
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.39595
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.40496
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.00978
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.83626
  • Upside part of mean
    0.06913
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.06876
  • Upside SD
    0.05644
  • Downside SD
    0.03765
  • N nonnegative terms
    1.00000
  • N negative terms
    7.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    8.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.38230
  • Mean of criterion
    0.00037
  • SD of predictor
    0.37076
  • SD of criterion
    0.07253
  • Covariance
    -0.00600
  • r
    -0.22316
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.04366
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.01706
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00583
  • DF error
    6.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.56078
  • p(b)
    0.70237
  • t(a)
    0.17380
  • p(a)
    0.43387
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.23415
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14683
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.22311
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.25722
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.00843
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.01706
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03382
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04221
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01806
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03168
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.97270
  • Quartile 1
    0.99953
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.04960
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98541
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02480
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00047
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98541
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12500
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04960
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.02913
  • Quartile 1
    0.02913
  • Median
    0.02913
  • Quartile 3
    0.02913
  • Maximum
    0.02913
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.02854
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.02868
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.98457
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.67942
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00029
  • SD
    0.06598
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.00435
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.00433
  • df
    193.00000
  • t
    -0.00374
  • p
    0.50017
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.28205
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.27336
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.28204
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.27338
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.00648
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.43794
  • Upside part of mean
    0.24088
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.24117
  • Upside SD
    0.04867
  • Downside SD
    0.04430
  • N nonnegative terms
    29.00000
  • N negative terms
    165.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    194.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.58150
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00029
  • SD of predictor
    0.36331
  • SD of criterion
    0.06598
  • Covariance
    0.00042
  • r
    0.01747
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00317
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.00200
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00437
  • DF error
    192.00000
  • t(b)
    0.24217
  • p(b)
    0.49126
  • t(a)
    -0.02761
  • p(a)
    0.50100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.02267
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02902
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15449
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.15022
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.09039
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00213
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.00245
  • SD
    0.06592
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.03716
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.03701
  • df
    193.00000
  • t
    -0.03198
  • p
    0.50147
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.31487
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.24055
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.31472
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.24069
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.05498
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.37985
  • Upside part of mean
    0.23968
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.24213
  • Upside SD
    0.04836
  • Downside SD
    0.04455
  • N nonnegative terms
    29.00000
  • N negative terms
    165.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    194.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.51530
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.00245
  • SD of predictor
    0.36311
  • SD of criterion
    0.06592
  • Covariance
    0.00044
  • r
    0.01831
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00332
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.00416
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00437
  • DF error
    192.00000
  • t(b)
    0.25378
  • p(b)
    0.49084
  • t(a)
    -0.05400
  • p(a)
    0.50195
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.02251
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02916
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.15622
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.14789
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.73681
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.00416
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00669
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00837
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00291
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00607
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    194.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98211
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.01866
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99671
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00370
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    28.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.14433
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99425
  • Number of outliers high
    30.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.15464
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00605
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -3.56506
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00163
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00166
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.04970
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00337
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00598
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00734
  • Quartile 1
    0.00792
  • Median
    0.00838
  • Quartile 3
    0.02434
  • Maximum
    0.07137
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00734
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00811
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00866
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.07137
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01642
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.07137
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.02570
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.02578
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.36128
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.36128
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    3.07922
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.03219
  • SD
    0.00302
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -10.64030
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -10.57880
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -7.52380
  • p
    0.77539
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -13.68150
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -7.56518
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -13.63430
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -7.52321
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -8.91504
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.03219
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00361
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.73555
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.03219
  • SD of predictor
    0.41715
  • SD of criterion
    0.00302
  • Covariance
    0.00006
  • r
    0.04946
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00036
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03245
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00001
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.56244
  • p(b)
    0.46853
  • t(a)
    -7.52066
  • p(a)
    0.83270
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00090
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00162
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04099
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02391
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -89.74240
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03245
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.03219
  • SD
    0.00303
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -10.62990
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -10.56840
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -7.51647
  • p
    0.77520
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -13.67060
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -7.55535
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -13.62350
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -7.51343
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -8.90899
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.03219
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00361
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.64839
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.03219
  • SD of predictor
    0.41676
  • SD of criterion
    0.00303
  • Covariance
    0.00006
  • r
    0.04860
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00035
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03242
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00001
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.55263
  • p(b)
    0.46907
  • t(a)
    -7.51479
  • p(a)
    0.83254
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.00700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00091
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00162
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.04095
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02388
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -91.15630
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03242
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00043
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00051
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00042
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00070
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.99786
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99994
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00763
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.99786
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00214
  • Quartile 1
    0.00214
  • Median
    0.00214
  • Quartile 3
    0.00214
  • Maximum
    0.00214
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -355160000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    32
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.00428
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.00427
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.99786
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -8.40177

Strategy Description

Ethos MES Day Trade is an algorithmic trading system that aims to profit from short term pullbacks from the trend in the S&P 500 futures. In addition to Collective2 I also trade this strategy on the TopStepTrader prop trading platform.

This strategy uses a multi-time analysis to determine the medium term trend, usually lasting a few weeks, and shorter term pullbacks. Trades are only placed in the direction of the medium term trend in order to maximize long term profitability and limit drawdowns. Once the strategy determines that a trend is established the algorithm uses a number of indicators to look for short term reversals. When these pullbacks reach an extreme level the strategy places a trade back in the direction of the trend.

Ethos MES Day Trade trades the front month micro ES futures contract in long and short directions. Daily losses are capped at 2% of portfolio equity. All trades are initiated with a hard stop loss at the daily loss limit but losing trades are usually sold based on a technical reversal before hitting the stop loss. I trade from the Sunday CME open till the Friday close. Trades can occur at any time, including the overnight session, so I strongly recommend that this strategy be AutoTraded.

Since this strategy also trades on TopStepTrader’s prop trading platform there are a number of rules I must follow to meet their risk requirements. All trades are closed before the end of each trading day (16:15 EST). No positions are held over the weekend or during major economic announcements such as the Federal Reserve rate decision and non-farm payroll release.

This strategy is designed to meet the strict risk requirements in the CStar program on C2 and TopStepTrader’s platform. If you are looking for a similar strategy but with more growth potential and volatility please check out my Ethos ES Day Trade strategy.

Message me on C2 or via email at [email protected] if you have any other questions about my Ethos MES Day Trade strategy.

- Strategy Type: Short term momentum

- Account Compatibility: Futures account with overnight margin (AutoTrade recommended)

- Instruments Traded: MES (S&P 500 micro futures)

- Trading Times: 24/5 (Sunday CME Open to Friday CME Close)

- Position Sizing: 2-5 contracts per trade

- Positions Held Overnight: Yes

- Positions Held Through Weekends: No

- Average Holding Time: 1 - 10 hours

- Number of Trades per Week: 2 - 4

- Update Messages: Every weekend

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2020-08-20
Suggested Minimum Capital
$50,000
# Trades
138
# Profitable
56
% Profitable
40.6%
Correlation S&P500
0.030
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52
Sortino Ratio
-0.74
Beta
0.01
Alpha
-0.01
Leverage
2.56 Average
6.61 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.