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Tactical Equity
(123100161)

Created by: elumna elumna
Started: 03/2019
Stocks
Last trade: 142 days ago
Trading style: Equity Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $95.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
8.0%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(40.2%)
Max Drawdown
21
Num Trades
38.1%
Win Trades
1.4 : 1
Profit Factor
63.2%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2019                -  (1.9%)+4.1%+4.0%+1.1%+11.2%(2.9%)+0.1%+0.2%+1.0%+17.5%
2020(6.8%)+3.0%(3.2%)+1.5%(0.7%)+1.2%+2.4%(2.8%)+1.1%                  (4.6%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 6 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 390 days ago.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
2/28/20 15:03 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 1,561 38.47 3/31 15:47 42.30 20.65%
Trade id #127779988
Max drawdown($20,183)
Time3/18/20 0:00
Quant open1,561
Worst price25.54
Drawdown as % of equity-20.65%
$5,974
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
1/2/20 15:26 BRZU DIREXION DAILY BRAZIL BULL 2X LONG 275 41.13 3/31 15:47 15.49 5.66%
Trade id #126838823
Max drawdown($5,536)
Time3/18/20 0:00
Quant open138
Worst price1.01
Drawdown as % of equity-5.66%
($7,057)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.50
1/2/20 15:25 SPXL DIREXION DAILY S&P500 BULL 3X LONG 177 67.07 3/31 15:47 39.14 3.62%
Trade id #126838814
Max drawdown($3,975)
Time2/28/20 0:00
Quant open177
Worst price44.61
Drawdown as % of equity-3.62%
($4,948)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.54
1/2/20 15:24 JPNL DIREXION DAILY JAPAN BULL 3X LONG 230 65.70 3/31 15:47 46.93 3.59%
Trade id #126838759
Max drawdown($3,689)
Time3/16/20 0:00
Quant open82
Worst price20.70
Drawdown as % of equity-3.59%
($4,322)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.60
11/29/19 10:51 DZK DIREXION DAILY DEV MKTS BULL 3 LONG 880 68.74 3/31/20 15:47 57.51 11.1%
Trade id #126420096
Max drawdown($10,847)
Time3/18/20 0:00
Quant open211
Worst price17.33
Drawdown as % of equity-11.10%
($9,889)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.28
11/29/19 10:46 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 3,110 30.81 2/28/20 15:02 35.20 2.34%
Trade id #126419983
Max drawdown($2,746)
Time12/31/19 0:00
Quant open1,006
Worst price25.77
Drawdown as % of equity-2.34%
$13,654
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
1/2/20 15:23 JPNL DIREXION DAILY JAPAN BULL 3X SHORT 580 65.51 1/2 15:24 65.70 0.09%
Trade id #126838750
Max drawdown($110)
Time1/2/20 15:24
Quant open580
Worst price65.70
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
($115)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
11/29/19 10:50 JPNL DIREXION DAILY JAPAN BULL 3X LONG 319 62.99 1/2/20 15:23 65.51 0.46%
Trade id #126420062
Max drawdown($516)
Time12/3/19 0:00
Quant open319
Worst price61.37
Drawdown as % of equity-0.46%
$798
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.38
11/1/19 15:05 EET PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI EMERGING LONG 99 72.34 11/29 10:44 70.00 0.18%
Trade id #126044084
Max drawdown($209)
Time11/29/19 9:46
Quant open99
Worst price70.22
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
($234)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.98
9/30/19 15:33 EFO PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI EAFE LONG 1,642 40.19 11/29 10:44 40.54 0.28%
Trade id #125560763
Max drawdown($325)
Time10/3/19 0:00
Quant open122
Worst price34.74
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
$574
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.22
8/30/19 15:35 UBR PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI BRAZIL LONG 151 71.37 11/29 10:44 70.90 0.32%
Trade id #125167436
Max drawdown($388)
Time9/3/19 0:00
Quant open108
Worst price64.24
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
($74)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.02
8/30/19 15:10 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P500 LONG 161 123.64 11/29 10:44 137.32 0.53%
Trade id #125166758
Max drawdown($612)
Time10/3/19 0:00
Quant open113
Worst price118.22
Drawdown as % of equity-0.53%
$2,199
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.22
8/30/19 15:09 UBT PROSHARES ULTRA 20+ YEAR TREAS LONG 639 112.06 11/29 10:44 102.20 8.77%
Trade id #125166749
Max drawdown($10,024)
Time9/13/19 0:00
Quant open639
Worst price96.37
Drawdown as % of equity-8.77%
($6,308)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.89
9/30/19 15:32 EFO PROSHARES ULTRA MSCI EAFE SHORT 112 37.13 9/30 15:32 37.41 n/a ($33)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.24
3/29/19 15:43 SPXL DIREXION DAILY S&P500 BULL 3X LONG 801 50.05 8/30 15:08 46.16 4.19%
Trade id #123134054
Max drawdown($4,122)
Time5/31/19 0:00
Quant open605
Worst price42.43
Drawdown as % of equity-4.19%
($3,136)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.02
3/29/19 15:47 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 2,683 21.58 8/30 15:08 30.62 5.72%
Trade id #123134111
Max drawdown($5,470)
Time4/17/19 0:00
Quant open2,683
Worst price19.54
Drawdown as % of equity-5.72%
$24,251
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $14.22
3/29/19 15:46 BRZU DIREXION DAILY BRAZIL BULL 2X LONG 315 28.20 8/30 15:07 26.07 1.71%
Trade id #123134087
Max drawdown($1,972)
Time8/27/19 0:00
Quant open288
Worst price21.35
Drawdown as % of equity-1.71%
($676)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.30
3/29/19 15:45 JPNL DIREXION DAILY JAPAN BULL 3X LONG 119 52.25 5/31 14:53 47.59 0.61%
Trade id #123134073
Max drawdown($599)
Time5/31/19 10:34
Quant open85
Worst price45.19
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
($556)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.38

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    3/27/2019
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    543.69
  • Age
    18 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    21
  • # Profitable
    8
  • % Profitable
    38.10%
  • Avg trade duration
    93.0 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    40.22%
  • drawdown period
    March 09, 2020 - March 18, 2020
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    8.0%
  • Avg win
    $6,346
  • Avg loss
    $2,951
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $66,464
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $68,786
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.40:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.32
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.42
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.359
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -6.15%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.04410
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    15.38%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    8.0%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    21.10%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.35%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.080%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    9.2%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    8.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    1
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $2,952
  • Avg Win
    $6,364
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $38,374.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    19
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $50,909.000
  • # Winners
    8
  • Num Months Winners
    13
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    1556
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    13
  • % Winners
    38.1%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    133932.00
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    2232.20
  • Avg Trade Length
    93.0 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    142
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.95
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.89
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.03
  • Beta
    -0.04
  • Treynor Index
    -0.68
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.04
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    10.30
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    16.85
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.85
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.04
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.04
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    6.282
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.06
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.601
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.233
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.161
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.08613
  • SD
    0.21771
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.39563
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.37228
  • df
    13.00000
  • t
    0.42733
  • p
    0.42525
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.43264
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.20899
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.44792
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.19249
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.65239
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.33406
  • Upside part of mean
    0.30816
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.22203
  • Upside SD
    0.16492
  • Downside SD
    0.13203
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    8.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    14.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10209
  • Mean of criterion
    0.08613
  • SD of predictor
    0.20114
  • SD of criterion
    0.21771
  • Covariance
    -0.01361
  • r
    -0.31086
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.33647
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.12048
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04639
  • DF error
    12.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.13297
  • p(b)
    0.65543
  • t(a)
    0.59737
  • p(a)
    0.41503
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.98353
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.31059
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.31896
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.55992
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.25599
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.12048
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.06394
  • SD
    0.21645
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.29541
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.27797
  • df
    13.00000
  • t
    0.31908
  • p
    0.44395
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.52822
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.10790
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.53974
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.09569
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.46061
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.12332
  • Upside part of mean
    0.29475
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.23081
  • Upside SD
    0.15676
  • Downside SD
    0.13882
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    8.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    14.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08226
  • Mean of criterion
    0.06394
  • SD of predictor
    0.20533
  • SD of criterion
    0.21645
  • Covariance
    -0.01337
  • r
    -0.30093
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.31722
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.09004
  • Mean Square Error
    0.04616
  • DF error
    12.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.09312
  • p(b)
    0.65046
  • t(a)
    0.44943
  • p(a)
    0.43567
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.94950
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.31506
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.34646
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.52653
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.20157
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.09004
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.09285
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.11599
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.04627
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.08924
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.88420
  • Quartile 1
    0.98137
  • Median
    1.00084
  • Quartile 3
    1.04669
  • Maximum
    1.13171
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.94273
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99560
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01168
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.08508
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.06531
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.44590
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06466
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.13664
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    2.01081
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.09244
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.02195
  • Quartile 1
    0.04624
  • Median
    0.07054
  • Quartile 3
    0.09509
  • Maximum
    0.11964
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.02195
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.07054
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11964
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04885
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.09695
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.09620
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.80404
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.80404
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.82934
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.11085
  • SD
    0.24807
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.44685
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.44580
  • df
    320.00000
  • t
    0.49461
  • p
    0.31061
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.32449
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.21760
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.32524
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.21684
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.60225
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.97970
  • Upside part of mean
    1.10063
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.98978
  • Upside SD
    0.16588
  • Downside SD
    0.18406
  • N nonnegative terms
    175.00000
  • N negative terms
    146.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    321.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17320
  • Mean of criterion
    0.11085
  • SD of predictor
    0.30926
  • SD of criterion
    0.24807
  • Covariance
    -0.00429
  • r
    -0.05596
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.04489
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.11900
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06154
  • DF error
    319.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.00102
  • p(b)
    0.84121
  • t(a)
    0.52899
  • p(a)
    0.29859
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.13311
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04334
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.32257
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.55983
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.46953
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.11863
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.07969
  • SD
    0.25099
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.31750
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.31676
  • df
    320.00000
  • t
    0.35144
  • p
    0.36274
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.45357
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.08818
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.45411
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.08763
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.41608
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.67665
  • Upside part of mean
    1.08722
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.00753
  • Upside SD
    0.16168
  • Downside SD
    0.19152
  • N nonnegative terms
    175.00000
  • N negative terms
    146.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    321.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.12504
  • Mean of criterion
    0.07969
  • SD of predictor
    0.31153
  • SD of criterion
    0.25099
  • Covariance
    -0.00312
  • r
    -0.03987
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03212
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.08371
  • Mean Square Error
    0.06309
  • DF error
    319.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.71272
  • p(b)
    0.76173
  • t(a)
    0.36876
  • p(a)
    0.35628
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.12080
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05655
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.36289
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.53031
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.48066
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.08371
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02489
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03117
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00790
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01784
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    321.00000
  • Minimum
    0.87718
  • Quartile 1
    0.99645
  • Median
    1.00066
  • Quartile 3
    1.00550
  • Maximum
    1.08622
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98658
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99870
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00297
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01404
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00905
  • Number outliers low
    13.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04050
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95640
  • Number of outliers high
    9.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.02804
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.04883
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.63126
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01299
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03836
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.32777
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01238
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02285
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    12.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00129
  • Quartile 1
    0.01216
  • Median
    0.02360
  • Quartile 3
    0.04922
  • Maximum
    0.31628
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00410
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01718
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03264
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.16073
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03706
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08333
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.31628
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.15485
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.14752
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.20239
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.46953
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.30892
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.11501
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.11360
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.35917
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.70674
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    3.64473
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.04837
  • SD
    0.35911
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.13471
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.13393
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.09525
  • p
    0.50418
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.90632
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.63739
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.90578
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.63793
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.17710
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.34489
  • Upside part of mean
    1.45990
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.50827
  • Upside SD
    0.23104
  • Downside SD
    0.27314
  • N nonnegative terms
    70.00000
  • N negative terms
    61.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.17688
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.04837
  • SD of predictor
    0.46101
  • SD of criterion
    0.35911
  • Covariance
    -0.01044
  • r
    -0.06307
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.04913
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.03968
  • Mean Square Error
    0.12944
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.71779
  • p(b)
    0.54013
  • t(a)
    -0.07797
  • p(a)
    0.50437
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.18455
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.08629
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.04665
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.96728
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.98461
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.03968
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.11353
  • SD
    0.36416
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.31175
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.30995
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.22044
  • p
    0.50967
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.08333
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.46080
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.08201
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.46212
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.39799
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.02747
  • Upside part of mean
    1.43410
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.54762
  • Upside SD
    0.22424
  • Downside SD
    0.28525
  • N nonnegative terms
    70.00000
  • N negative terms
    61.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07037
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.11353
  • SD of predictor
    0.46456
  • SD of criterion
    0.36416
  • Covariance
    -0.00763
  • r
    -0.04510
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03536
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.11104
  • Mean Square Error
    0.13337
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.51280
  • p(b)
    0.52870
  • t(a)
    -0.21499
  • p(a)
    0.51205
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.02500
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.17177
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.10106
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -1.13293
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.91085
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    3.21096
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.11104
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03675
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04573
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01227
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02743
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.87718
  • Quartile 1
    0.99670
  • Median
    1.00048
  • Quartile 3
    1.00617
  • Maximum
    1.08622
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97879
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99862
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00310
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01929
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00946
  • Number outliers low
    11.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.08397
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.95230
  • Number of outliers high
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.05384
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.72154
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01707
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.06937
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.18306
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01776
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03044
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00538
  • Quartile 1
    0.01653
  • Median
    0.06126
  • Quartile 3
    0.15578
  • Maximum
    0.31628
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00538
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.02025
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.10228
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.31628
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.13925
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -289339000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    9
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.08381
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.08206
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.25944
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.25944
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.79450

Strategy Description

The Elumna GTEA (USD) Strategy seeks to consistently rotate into the world’s strongest stock markets according to two measures of trend and momentum. The Strategy allocates between index ETFs tied to U.S. stocks, international stocks, and emerging market stocks. Where our proprietary statistical filter indicates an overwhelming probability that global equities are vulnerable to crash risk, the portfolio can move either partly or wholly into government bonds for ‘safe harbour’, preserving capital while waiting for the inevitable next bull market to begin.

Leverage is set dynamically, according to the perceived market risk, and is implemented via Levered ETFs, so to make the strategy easier to follow and more cost efficient.
The traded ETFs are extremely liquid, some of the most exchanged in the world.

The decision making process for this system is totally algorithmic based, with no room for discretion.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2019-03-27
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
# Trades
21
# Profitable
8
% Profitable
38.1%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
-0.044
Sharpe Ratio
0.32
Sortino Ratio
0.42
Beta
-0.04
Alpha
0.03
Leverage
1.95 Average
2.89 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.