Collective2 Collective2
Featured Strategy S2Prox0 Followed by live capital $147,000 Hypothetical

Welcome to Collective2

Follow these tips for a better experience

Ok, let's start

Close
Add to Watch List Create new Watch List
Add
Enter a name for your Watch List.
Watch List name must be less than 60 characters.
You have reached the maximum number of custom Watch Lists.
You have reached the maximum number of strategies in this Watch List.
Strategy added to Watch List. Go to Watch List

Sim is unavailable for this strategy, because you've recently "Simmed" it.

You already have a live, full-featured subscription to this strategy.

Okay, no problem

Reach out to us when you are ready. You can schedule your free training session at any time by clicking the button.

Remember, this training is free, low pressure, and (we hope!) fun.

Got it

Later

You can find it here.

Got it

Video Saved for Later

You can watch this video later. Just click this button at the top of the screen whenever you're ready to watch it.

Got it
Watchlist Watchlist
This strategy is no longer supported by its creator.
These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
Watchlist Watchlist More...

The Closing Edge
(92425515)

Created by: DavidStrauss3 DavidStrauss3
Started: 02/2015
Futures
Last trade: 2,857 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $50.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

-3.9%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(29.4%)
Max Drawdown
106
Num Trades
64.2%
Win Trades
1.2 : 1
Profit Factor
9.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2015       +0.1%+11.0%+9.4%+3.3%(4.5%)+7.4%(5.5%)(5.3%)+2.2%+1.2%(0.7%)+18.3%
2016(1.6%)(5.2%)+2.2%+0.6%+2.7%(23.6%)  -    -    -    -    -    -  (24.8%)
2017  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2018  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2019  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2020  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2021  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2022  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -                                                  0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 73 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 2964 days ago.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
6/23/16 8:00 @ESU6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2094.00 6/23 18:00 2115.75 9.13%
Trade id #104234391
Max drawdown($1,088)
Time6/23/16 18:00
Quant open0
Worst price2115.75
Drawdown as % of equity-9.13%
 ($1,096)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/23/16 7:58 @ESU6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2094.50 6/23 7:58 2094.25 n/a $5
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/21/16 9:37 @ESU6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2078.00 6/23 5:07 2096.75 7.08%
Trade id #104191474
Max drawdown($938)
Time6/23/16 5:07
Quant open0
Worst price2096.75
Drawdown as % of equity-7.08%
 ($946)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/20/16 10:35 @ESU6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2088.50 6/20 15:51 2075.25 4.74%
Trade id #104170352
Max drawdown($663)
Time6/20/16 15:51
Quant open0
Worst price2075.25
Drawdown as % of equity-4.74%
 ($671)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/13/16 10:21 @ESU6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2085.25 6/13 11:04 2085.00 1.39%
Trade id #103425499
Max drawdown($200)
Time6/13/16 10:32
Quant open-1
Worst price2089.25
Drawdown as % of equity-1.39%
 $5
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/9/16 13:32 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2114.00 6/9 13:59 2111.50 0%
Trade id #102766916
Max drawdown$0
Time6/9/16 13:36
Quant open-1
Worst price2114.00
Drawdown as % of equity0.00%
 $117
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/9/16 10:39 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2108.75 6/9 11:08 2112.00 0.27%
Trade id #102762452
Max drawdown($37)
Time6/9/16 10:41
Quant open1
Worst price2108.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 $155
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/8/16 13:26 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2116.00 6/8 13:52 2115.50 n/a $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/8/16 12:21 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2117.00 6/8 12:58 2116.50 0.27%
Trade id #102743294
Max drawdown($37)
Time6/8/16 12:32
Quant open-1
Worst price2117.75
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
 $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/8/16 7:42 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2114.00 6/8 9:46 2117.50 1.31%
Trade id #102736348
Max drawdown($187)
Time6/8/16 9:46
Quant open-1
Worst price2117.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.31%
 ($183)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/6/16 9:04 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2103.00 6/6 9:32 2101.50 0.09%
Trade id #102697338
Max drawdown($12)
Time6/6/16 9:06
Quant open-1
Worst price2103.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $67
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/6/16 8:07 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2102.00 6/6 8:45 2104.25 0.79%
Trade id #102696508
Max drawdown($113)
Time6/6/16 8:45
Quant open0
Worst price2104.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.79%
 ($121)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/3/16 14:50 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2099.50 6/3 15:14 2099.00 0.61%
Trade id #102679797
Max drawdown($87)
Time6/3/16 14:55
Quant open-1
Worst price2101.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.61%
 $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/2/16 10:38 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2092.75 6/2 11:00 2094.25 0.52%
Trade id #102649263
Max drawdown($75)
Time6/2/16 11:00
Quant open0
Worst price2094.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.52%
 ($83)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/2/16 10:09 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2091.50 6/2 10:32 2091.25 0.26%
Trade id #102648348
Max drawdown($37)
Time6/2/16 10:17
Quant open-1
Worst price2092.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
 $5
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/1/16 11:11 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2094.50 6/1 11:43 2091.75 0.18%
Trade id #102630302
Max drawdown($25)
Time6/1/16 11:23
Quant open-1
Worst price2095.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 $130
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/25/16 8:17 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2083.50 5/25 9:29 2081.25 0.35%
Trade id #102525543
Max drawdown($50)
Time5/25/16 8:35
Quant open-1
Worst price2084.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.35%
 $105
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/23/16 10:28 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2051.25 5/23 11:02 2049.00 0.09%
Trade id #102489845
Max drawdown($12)
Time5/23/16 10:35
Quant open-1
Worst price2051.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $105
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/19/16 14:13 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2035.00 5/19 14:46 2031.50 n/a $167
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/17/16 9:37 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2056.50 5/17 10:33 2053.25 n/a ($171)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/11/16 10:04 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2070.50 5/11 10:32 2076.50 n/a $292
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/5/16 10:36 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2050.00 5/5 10:53 2049.50 0.09%
Trade id #102202799
Max drawdown($12)
Time5/5/16 10:53
Quant open-1
Worst price2050.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/3/16 12:58 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2056.25 5/3 14:28 2057.75 2.54%
Trade id #102156370
Max drawdown($350)
Time5/3/16 13:53
Quant open-1
Worst price2063.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.54%
 ($83)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/28/16 11:14 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2090.50 4/28 12:27 2090.00 1.1%
Trade id #102078139
Max drawdown($150)
Time4/28/16 11:36
Quant open-1
Worst price2093.50
Drawdown as % of equity-1.10%
 $17
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/25/16 10:33 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2073.50 4/25 11:36 2074.25 0.91%
Trade id #102007765
Max drawdown($125)
Time4/25/16 11:11
Quant open1
Worst price2071.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.91%
 $30
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/21/16 10:53 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2096.00 4/21 11:48 2091.00 0.56%
Trade id #101954740
Max drawdown($75)
Time4/21/16 11:02
Quant open-1
Worst price2097.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.56%
 $242
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/20/16 8:59 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2097.00 4/20 9:43 2093.50 0.09%
Trade id #101921441
Max drawdown($12)
Time4/20/16 9:01
Quant open-1
Worst price2097.25
Drawdown as % of equity-0.09%
 $167
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/14/16 11:00 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2076.75 4/14 13:57 2077.25 1.9%
Trade id #101828151
Max drawdown($250)
Time4/14/16 13:06
Quant open-1
Worst price2081.75
Drawdown as % of equity-1.90%
 ($33)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/8/16 13:06 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 LONG 1 2041.50 4/8 14:16 2045.75 1.34%
Trade id #101735325
Max drawdown($175)
Time4/8/16 13:26
Quant open1
Worst price2038.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.34%
 $205
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/1/16 10:15 @ESM6 E-MINI S&P 500 SHORT 1 2049.25 4/1 13:22 2057.75 3.2%
Trade id #101612206
Max drawdown($425)
Time4/1/16 13:22
Quant open0
Worst price2057.75
Drawdown as % of equity-3.20%
 ($433)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/10/2015
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $10,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    3350.88
  • Age
    112 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    106
  • # Profitable
    68
  • % Profitable
    64.20%
  • Avg trade duration
    3.2 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    29.35%
  • drawdown period
    Aug 18, 2015 - June 23, 2016
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -3.9%
  • Avg win
    $179.93
  • Avg loss
    $274.68
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $11,790
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $11,790
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.17:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.34
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.42
  • Calmar Ratio
    0.362
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -7.55%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.01430
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    140.91%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -3.9%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    48.20%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.94%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.039%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    1.8%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    30.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    2.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    852
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    450
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $275
  • Avg Win
    $180
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $10,438.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    111
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $12,235.000
  • # Winners
    68
  • Num Months Winners
    10
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    38
  • % Winners
    64.2%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    193.82
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    3.23
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    2852
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.01
  • Beta
    0.01
  • Treynor Index
    -1.29
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.02
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    54.77
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    38.31
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    0.45
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.03
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    21.241
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.06
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.554
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.075
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.047
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.27550
  • SD
    0.17724
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.55445
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.47518
  • df
    15.00000
  • t
    1.79492
  • p
    0.24042
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.25350
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.31595
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.30238
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.25275
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.91071
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.65471
  • Upside part of mean
    0.37334
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09784
  • Upside SD
    0.18063
  • Downside SD
    0.05610
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    6.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    16.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.00887
  • Mean of criterion
    0.27550
  • SD of predictor
    0.13127
  • SD of criterion
    0.17724
  • Covariance
    0.00474
  • r
    0.20358
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.27487
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.27306
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03226
  • DF error
    14.00000
  • t(b)
    0.77802
  • p(b)
    0.39821
  • t(a)
    1.75511
  • p(a)
    0.28766
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.48287
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.03260
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.06063
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.60675
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.00230
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.27306
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.25851
  • SD
    0.16945
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.52564
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.44784
  • df
    15.00000
  • t
    1.76166
  • p
    0.24415
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.27881
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.28433
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.32684
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.22253
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    4.52381
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.26276
  • Upside part of mean
    0.35789
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.09937
  • Upside SD
    0.17094
  • Downside SD
    0.05715
  • N nonnegative terms
    10.00000
  • N negative terms
    6.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    16.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.00085
  • Mean of criterion
    0.25851
  • SD of predictor
    0.13065
  • SD of criterion
    0.16945
  • Covariance
    0.00506
  • r
    0.22840
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.29622
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.25827
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02916
  • DF error
    14.00000
  • t(b)
    0.87779
  • p(b)
    0.38580
  • t(a)
    1.74643
  • p(a)
    0.28852
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.42756
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.01999
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.05891
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.57544
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.87272
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.25827
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05721
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.07614
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01563
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03149
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    16.00000
  • Minimum
    0.95838
  • Quartile 1
    0.99199
  • Median
    1.01655
  • Quartile 3
    1.04357
  • Maximum
    1.15250
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97119
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00139
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03119
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.09138
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.05158
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.06250
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.15250
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.52045
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03097
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03649
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.37379
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.03462
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03498
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00567
  • Quartile 1
    0.01182
  • Median
    0.01796
  • Quartile 3
    0.04926
  • Maximum
    0.08056
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00567
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01796
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08056
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03744
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.32280
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.30796
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.82275
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    3.82275
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.04477
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16662
  • SD
    0.15265
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.09155
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.08983
  • df
    478.00000
  • t
    1.28805
  • p
    0.09918
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.57138
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.75342
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.57256
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.75223
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.54243
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.51665
  • Upside part of mean
    0.70396
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.53734
  • Upside SD
    0.10800
  • Downside SD
    0.10802
  • N nonnegative terms
    102.00000
  • N negative terms
    377.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    479.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.01635
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16662
  • SD of predictor
    0.14960
  • SD of criterion
    0.15265
  • Covariance
    -0.00150
  • r
    -0.06582
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.06716
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02325
  • DF error
    477.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.44069
  • p(b)
    0.92484
  • t(a)
    1.29797
  • p(a)
    0.09746
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15877
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02444
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.08619
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.42162
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.48081
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.16772
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.15488
  • SD
    0.15335
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.01001
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.00843
  • df
    478.00000
  • t
    1.19184
  • p
    0.11696
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.65271
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.67168
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.65376
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.67062
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.40481
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.33277
  • Upside part of mean
    0.69821
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.54332
  • Upside SD
    0.10668
  • Downside SD
    0.11025
  • N nonnegative terms
    102.00000
  • N negative terms
    377.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    479.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.00516
  • Mean of criterion
    0.15488
  • SD of predictor
    0.14979
  • SD of criterion
    0.15335
  • Covariance
    -0.00148
  • r
    -0.06443
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.06596
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.15523
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02347
  • DF error
    477.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.41018
  • p(b)
    0.92043
  • t(a)
    1.19569
  • p(a)
    0.11621
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.15788
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.02595
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.09987
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.41032
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.34805
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.15523
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01306
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01646
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00468
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01025
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    479.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92364
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.05136
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99386
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00819
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    69.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.14405
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98931
  • Number of outliers high
    102.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.21294
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00964
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.10720
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00304
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00563
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.15935
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00695
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01198
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    15.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00022
  • Quartile 1
    0.00144
  • Median
    0.01003
  • Quartile 3
    0.03831
  • Maximum
    0.13037
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00058
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00541
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02266
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09564
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03687
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11430
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -40.61240
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.08243
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -2.03115
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.14492
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.14771
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.18529
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.17920
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.37449
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.87358
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    10.88520
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.10957
  • SD
    0.16620
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.65924
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.65635
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    -0.46615
  • p
    0.52268
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.43098
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.11439
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.42903
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.11633
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.75366
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.62966
  • Upside part of mean
    0.67307
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.78264
  • Upside SD
    0.07976
  • Downside SD
    0.14538
  • N nonnegative terms
    51.00000
  • N negative terms
    121.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.05002
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.10957
  • SD of predictor
    0.14274
  • SD of criterion
    0.16620
  • Covariance
    -0.00321
  • r
    -0.13551
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.15778
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.10168
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02728
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.78326
  • p(b)
    0.56775
  • t(a)
    -0.43525
  • p(a)
    0.51668
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.33245
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01688
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.56282
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.35946
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.69442
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.10168
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.12367
  • SD
    0.16938
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.73010
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.72689
  • df
    171.00000
  • t
    -0.51626
  • p
    0.52511
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -3.50193
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.04384
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -3.49977
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.04598
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.82856
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    4.48828
  • Upside part of mean
    0.66989
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.79356
  • Upside SD
    0.07932
  • Downside SD
    0.14925
  • N nonnegative terms
    51.00000
  • N negative terms
    121.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    172.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.03988
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.12367
  • SD of predictor
    0.14279
  • SD of criterion
    0.16938
  • Covariance
    -0.00326
  • r
    -0.13497
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.16010
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.11728
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02833
  • DF error
    170.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.77600
  • p(b)
    0.56748
  • t(a)
    -0.49262
  • p(a)
    0.51888
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01200
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.33806
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.01785
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.58725
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.35269
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.77241
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.11728
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01526
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01901
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00635
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01391
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    172.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92364
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00149
  • Maximum
    1.01613
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99098
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00020
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00766
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00149
  • Number outliers low
    29.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.16861
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98688
  • Number of outliers high
    38.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.22093
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.00837
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.28565
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00393
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00776
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.18762
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00821
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01569
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    6.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00055
  • Quartile 1
    0.00660
  • Median
    0.01084
  • Quartile 3
    0.04292
  • Maximum
    0.13037
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00301
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01003
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01165
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09186
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03632
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.16667
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.13037
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    310
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.11054
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.10749
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.82446
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.17013
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -5.65475

Strategy Description

Each day by 5:30pm ET we calculate the probabilities of the Emini S&P 500, closing either Higher or Lower on the following day. We enter the trade at the 6:00pm ET Opening on a limit order at or better than the last trade of the Emini at 4:00pm ET.
We always use a trailing stop loss, calculated to provide optimum results, and a profit target. If neither of those prices are elected during the trading session, we exit at the 4:00pm ET Close of the same session as the trade was entered.
The parameters that we use are designed to give a strong edge to the trade and we have minimum "trigger" levels that need to be met in order to take a trade.
There are 2-3 trades per week, depending on market conditions.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2015-02-10
Suggested Minimum Capital
$10,000
# Trades
106
# Profitable
68
% Profitable
64.2%
Correlation S&P500
0.014
Sharpe Ratio
-0.34
Sortino Ratio
-0.42
Beta
0.01
Alpha
-0.01

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Okay, gotcha.

Not available

This feature isn't available under your current Trade Leader Plan.

Want to see available plans and features?

Please hold...

Strategy is now visible

This strategy is now visible to the public. New subscribers will be able to follow it.

If you designate your strategy as Private, it will no longer be visible to the public.

No subscribers and simulations will be allowed. If you have subscribers, the strategy will still be visible to them.
If you have simulations, they will be stopped.

Continue to designate your strategy as Private?

Mark as Private Keep Public

Strategy is no longer visible

This strategy is no longer visible to anyone except current subscribers.

(Current subscribers will remain subscribed. You can see who is subscribed, and control their subscriptions, on your Subscriber Management screen.)

Finally, please note that you can restore public visibility at any time.

This strategy is no longer visible to the public. No subscribers will be allowed.

You can restore public visibility at any time.

Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.