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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Simple SPY (50328488)

Created by: UserRemoved109 UserRemoved109
Started: 06/2010
Stocks
Last trade: 1,455 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $95.00 per month.

-
Annual Return (Compounded)
100.0%
Max Drawdown
14
Num Trades
57.1%
Win Trades
-0.0 : 1
Profit Factor
14.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010                                   +13.6%+4.2%+3.0%+0.5%(7.6%)(1.4%)(13.6%)(3.4%)
2011(6.2%)(8.8%)(0.2%)(6.8%)(1.1%)+4.5%+1.4%+10.8%+9.8%(13.3%)+4.2%(9.7%)(17.3%)
2012(11.2%)(14.1%)(11.6%)+0.4%+16.9%(10.3%)(7%)(10.7%)(8.6%)+4.6%(5.5%)(4.7%)(49.3%)
2013(23.5%)(13.8%)(18.3%)(15.8%)(45.9%)+42.0%(62.8%)(9.3%)(56.6%)(404.2%)(66.9%)(26.3%)(132.7%)
2014(35.1%)(87%)(8%)(8.5%)(15.6%)(17%)(8.3%)(23.2%)(2.3%)  -  (6.7%)(121.1%)
2015(8.1%)(23.4%)(4.1%)(4.9%)(5.2%)(7.4%)(11%)(29.1%)(7.1%)(32.2%)(0.9%)(1.7%)(44.5%)
2016(16.3%)(2.7%)(20.1%)(4.6%)(4.3%)(3.7%)(19.3%)(1.1%)(1.7%)(5%)(14.6%)(3.8%)(45.3%)
2017(3.4%)(13.3%)(0.4%)(4.8%)(2.7%)(1.7%)(2.7%)(0.5%)(3.9%)(4.2%)(2.6%)      (46.5%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 72 hours.

Trading Record

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Show More details Show Fewer details
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
11/11/10 15:57 SPY SPDR S&P 500 LONG 190 121.56 11/15 15:46 120.20 3.18%
Trade id #54751177
Max drawdown($362)
Time11/12/10 13:01
Quant open190
Worst price119.65
Drawdown as % of equity-3.18%
($262)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.80
11/2/10 11:08 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 190 119.32 11/11 15:55 121.45 6%
Trade id #54415122
Max drawdown($689)
Time11/9/10 10:23
Quant open-190
Worst price122.95
Drawdown as % of equity-6.00%
($409)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.80
11/1/10 10:47 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 190 119.42 11/1 15:46 118.35 0.24%
Trade id #54370712
Max drawdown($28)
Time11/1/10 10:51
Quant open-190
Worst price119.57
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
$199
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.80
10/27/10 15:56 SPY SPDR S&P 500 LONG 190 118.44 11/1 9:30 119.07 0.99%
Trade id #54250775
Max drawdown($115)
Time10/28/10 12:31
Quant open190
Worst price117.83
Drawdown as % of equity-0.99%
$116
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.80
9/24/10 15:50 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 200 114.79 10/27 15:53 118.33 8.55%
Trade id #53249761
Max drawdown($994)
Time10/25/10 10:01
Quant open-200
Worst price119.76
Drawdown as % of equity-8.55%
($712)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
9/23/10 15:50 SPY SPDR S&P 500 LONG 200 112.41 9/24 10:33 114.47 0.05%
Trade id #53210193
Max drawdown($6)
Time9/23/10 15:52
Quant open200
Worst price112.38
Drawdown as % of equity-0.05%
$408
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.00
9/1/10 10:19 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 240 108.03 9/23 15:50 112.35 13.67%
Trade id #52535406
Max drawdown($1,600)
Time9/21/10 14:41
Quant open-235
Worst price114.84
Drawdown as % of equity-13.67%
($1,041)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.80
8/25/10 15:46 SPY SPDR S&P 500 LONG 230 106.24 9/1 10:16 108.17 3.55%
Trade id #52336073
Max drawdown($443)
Time8/27/10 10:09
Quant open230
Worst price104.31
Drawdown as % of equity-3.55%
$439
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.60
8/24/10 13:01 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 230 105.88 8/25 12:03 105.30 0.71%
Trade id #52284251
Max drawdown($89)
Time8/24/10 15:26
Quant open-230
Worst price106.27
Drawdown as % of equity-0.71%
$128
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.60
8/17/10 9:31 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 220 109.19 8/20 15:54 107.63 2.16%
Trade id #52070130
Max drawdown($264)
Time8/17/10 13:35
Quant open-220
Worst price110.39
Drawdown as % of equity-2.16%
$339
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.40
7/12/10 15:56 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 230 107.95 8/11 15:47 109.40 10.13%
Trade id #51015493
Max drawdown($1,171)
Time8/9/10 14:50
Quant open-224
Worst price113.18
Drawdown as % of equity-10.13%
($339)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.60
7/2/10 15:51 SPY SPDR S&P 500 LONG 220 102.90 7/8 9:31 107.00 1.87%
Trade id #50787486
Max drawdown($224)
Time7/6/10 15:25
Quant open220
Worst price101.88
Drawdown as % of equity-1.87%
$898
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.40
6/16/10 15:45 SPY SPDR S&P 500 SHORT 170 111.81 7/1 11:16 101.38 2.36%
Trade id #50330172
Max drawdown($236)
Time6/21/10 9:31
Quant open-170
Worst price113.20
Drawdown as % of equity-2.36%
$1,770
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $3.40

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    6/16/2010
  • Starting Unit Size
    $10,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    2712.76
  • Age
    91 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    14
  • # Profitable
    8
  • % Profitable
    57.10%
  • Avg trade duration
    192.6 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    100%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 23, 2013 - Nov 07, 2017
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    0.0%
  • Avg win
    $541.25
  • Avg loss
    $2,459
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $15,017
  • Margin Used
    $11,898
  • Buying Power
    ($5,967)
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    -0.01:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.112
  • Sortino Ratio
    362.616
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.953
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    n/a
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    100.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    0
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Subscription Price
  • Billing Period (days)
    30
  • Trial Days
    14
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $2,459
  • Avg Win
    $541
  • # Winners
    8
  • # Losers
    6
  • % Winners
    57.1%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    277344.00
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    4622.41
  • Avg Trade Length
    192.6 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1451
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    166.20800
  • SD
    290.48000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.57218
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.55982
  • df
    35.00000
  • t
    0.99105
  • p
    0.16423
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.57124
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.70761
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.57934
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.69898
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    161.36800
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    163.04900
  • Upside part of mean
    167.93900
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.73089
  • Upside SD
    290.40600
  • Downside SD
    1.02999
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    28.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    36.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.26484
  • Mean of criterion
    166.20800
  • SD of predictor
    0.16218
  • SD of criterion
    290.48000
  • Covariance
    -13.96170
  • r
    -0.29637
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -530.83100
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    306.79300
  • Mean Square Error
    79230.90000
  • DF error
    34.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.80940
  • p(b)
    0.96038
  • t(a)
    1.70317
  • p(a)
    0.04883
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1127.04000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    65.37730
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -59.27720
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    672.86300
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.31311
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    306.79300
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -3.09802
  • SD
    6.15065
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.50369
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.49281
  • df
    35.00000
  • t
    -0.87242
  • p
    0.80554
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.63782
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.63753
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.63026
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.64465
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.62411
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.46801
  • Upside part of mean
    2.32318
  • Downside part of mean
    -5.42120
  • Upside SD
    3.59709
  • Downside SD
    4.96391
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    28.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    36.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.24891
  • Mean of criterion
    -3.09802
  • SD of predictor
    0.16087
  • SD of criterion
    6.15065
  • Covariance
    -0.36500
  • r
    -0.36890
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -14.10460
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.41281
  • Mean Square Error
    33.64360
  • DF error
    34.00000
  • t(b)
    -2.31424
  • p(b)
    0.98659
  • t(a)
    0.11229
  • p(a)
    0.45563
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -26.49040
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.71870
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -7.05855
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    7.88417
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.21965
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.41281
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.95836
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.97664
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.43203
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.80495
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    36.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00161
  • Quartile 1
    0.85597
  • Median
    0.96150
  • Quartile 3
    1.00040
  • Maximum
    504.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.52145
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.92195
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.98670
  • Mean of quarter 4
    56.98180
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.14443
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.19710
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08333
  • Mean of outliers high
    168.82100
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.45227
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.48787
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    1.03353
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -1.30013
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.48936
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.51636
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.99992
  • Quartile 1
    0.99992
  • Median
    0.99992
  • Quartile 3
    0.99992
  • Maximum
    0.99992
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.33330
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.95358
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.95366
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.97640
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    856.14100
  • SD
    769.04900
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.11325
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.11219
  • df
    791.00000
  • t
    1.93555
  • p
    0.02664
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.01570
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.24155
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.01643
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.24081
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    362.61600
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    367.04200
  • Upside part of mean
    866.59000
  • Downside part of mean
    -10.44910
  • Upside SD
    770.37800
  • Downside SD
    2.36101
  • N nonnegative terms
    302.00000
  • N negative terms
    490.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    792.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.27729
  • Mean of criterion
    856.14100
  • SD of predictor
    0.23996
  • SD of criterion
    769.04900
  • Covariance
    -48.99460
  • r
    -0.26550
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -850.89400
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    1092.09000
  • Mean Square Error
    550443.00000
  • DF error
    790.00000
  • t(b)
    -7.74005
  • p(b)
    1.00000
  • t(a)
    2.55274
  • p(a)
    0.00544
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1066.69000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -635.09700
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    252.30900
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1931.86000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.00617
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    1092.09000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -3.07476
  • SD
    13.17880
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.23331
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.23309
  • df
    791.00000
  • t
    -0.40565
  • p
    0.65744
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.36062
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.89408
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.36044
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.89426
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.33542
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.44376
  • Upside part of mean
    22.40170
  • Downside part of mean
    -25.47640
  • Upside SD
    9.45863
  • Downside SD
    9.16688
  • N nonnegative terms
    302.00000
  • N negative terms
    490.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    792.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.24830
  • Mean of criterion
    -3.07476
  • SD of predictor
    0.24052
  • SD of criterion
    13.17880
  • Covariance
    -0.85648
  • r
    -0.27021
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -14.80570
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.60147
  • Mean Square Error
    161.20300
  • DF error
    790.00000
  • t(b)
    -7.88814
  • p(b)
    1.00000
  • t(a)
    0.08220
  • p(a)
    0.46725
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -18.49020
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -11.12130
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -13.76240
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    14.96540
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.20767
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.60147
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.74101
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.80821
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.10212
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.22885
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    792.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00389
  • Quartile 1
    0.98155
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00861
  • Maximum
    1210.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.84765
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99309
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00220
  • Mean of quarter 4
    14.22830
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02707
  • Number outliers low
    89.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11237
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.70181
  • Number of outliers high
    62.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07828
  • Mean of outliers high
    43.19330
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    1.10815
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.12815
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    4.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00355
  • Quartile 1
    0.00434
  • Median
    0.04682
  • Quartile 3
    0.31676
  • Maximum
    0.99992
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00355
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00460
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.08903
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.99992
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.31242
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.99992
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.33077
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.95249
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.95257
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.95257
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.17852
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    3657.85000
  • SD
    1820.73000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.00900
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.99739
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    1.42058
  • p
    0.43818
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.77730
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    4.78779
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.78503
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    4.77981
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1018.95000
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1024.30000
  • Upside part of mean
    3677.08000
  • Downside part of mean
    -19.22590
  • Upside SD
    1827.79000
  • Downside SD
    3.58983
  • N nonnegative terms
    15.00000
  • N negative terms
    116.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.41765
  • Mean of criterion
    3657.85000
  • SD of predictor
    0.27233
  • SD of criterion
    1820.73000
  • Covariance
    -285.69300
  • r
    -0.57618
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -3852.16000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    5266.72000
  • Mean Square Error
    2231690.00000
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -8.00675
  • p(b)
    0.84536
  • t(a)
    2.48172
  • p(a)
    0.36514
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -4804.05000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2900.26000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1067.89000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    9465.56000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.94956
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    5266.72000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    20.44030
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.00137
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.00136
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -0.00097
  • p
    0.50004
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.77317
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.77044
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.77316
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.77045
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.00216
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.93509
  • Upside part of mean
    50.74680
  • Downside part of mean
    -50.77470
  • Upside SD
    15.75790
  • Downside SD
    12.89600
  • N nonnegative terms
    15.00000
  • N negative terms
    116.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.37991
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.27575
  • SD of criterion
    20.44030
  • Covariance
    -3.24553
  • r
    -0.57582
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -42.68370
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    16.18820
  • Mean Square Error
    281.44100
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -7.99930
  • p(b)
    0.84517
  • t(a)
    0.67984
  • p(a)
    0.46198
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -53.24100
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -32.12640
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -30.92360
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    63.30000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00065
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    16.18820
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.87472
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.91918
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.23740
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.49620
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00513
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1210.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.70907
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    56.71330
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    25.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.19084
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.61598
  • Number of outliers high
    15.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11450
  • Mean of outliers high
    123.56900
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.87225
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.36906
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.44361
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.55537
  • Quartile 1
    0.66634
  • Median
    0.77730
  • Quartile 3
    0.88827
  • Maximum
    0.99923
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.55537
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.99923
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.22193
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description

Simple SPY is a long/short stock trading system utilizing the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund. An algorithm generates signals.

Margin is used. Day-trades will be rare. Pattern day-trading will not occur.

Open positions will not be increased. Open positions will only be partially reduced when required to meet margin calls. Stop orders will used to protect against extreme market moves.

Trading signals may be issued at any time. Only marketable limit orders will be entered.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2010-06-16
Minimum Capital Required
$10,000
# Trades
14
# Profitable
8
% Profitable
57.1%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
-0.639
Sharpe Ratio
1.112

Latest Activity

#PERSONNAME#
subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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