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Featured Strategy Income Trades Followed by live capital $91,600 Hypothetical

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This strategy is no longer supported by its creator.
These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more
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Schulenberg Meteoric 500
(134370531)

Created by: CraigSchulenberg CraigSchulenberg
Started: 03/2021
Stocks
Last trade: 943 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $100.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

10.7%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(14.2%)
Max Drawdown
344
Num Trades
43.3%
Win Trades
1.2 : 1
Profit Factor
18.2%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021              +5.3%(1.1%)+6.6%+2.3%+1.7%+3.1%(7.3%)+2.1%(0.2%)+3.7%+16.4%
2022(4.6%)+10.6%(2.8%)(5.6%)  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  (3.2%)
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -        0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 72 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 682 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 953 days ago.

Show AutoTrade data Hide AutoTrade data
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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
4/25/22 15:20 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 786 58.26 4/25 15:57 58.71 0.19%
Trade id #140257389
Max drawdown($94)
Time4/25/22 15:27
Quant open786
Worst price58.14
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
 $349
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/22 15:06 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,328 42.17 4/25 15:17 41.93 0.72%
Trade id #140257198
Max drawdown($358)
Time4/25/22 15:16
Quant open1,328
Worst price41.90
Drawdown as % of equity-0.72%
 ($324)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/22 14:49 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 786 58.21 4/25 15:00 57.98 0.4%
Trade id #140256838
Max drawdown($196)
Time4/25/22 15:00
Quant open786
Worst price57.96
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
 ($186)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/22 14:46 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,328 41.93 4/25 14:49 41.79 0.37%
Trade id #140256758
Max drawdown($185)
Time4/25/22 14:49
Quant open1,328
Worst price41.79
Drawdown as % of equity-0.37%
 ($191)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/22 14:25 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 786 57.80 4/25 14:45 57.85 0.02%
Trade id #140256362
Max drawdown($7)
Time4/25/22 14:45
Quant open786
Worst price57.79
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $34
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/25/22 9:47 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,328 42.72 4/25 14:32 41.90 2.22%
Trade id #140249399
Max drawdown($1,102)
Time4/25/22 14:32
Quant open1,328
Worst price41.89
Drawdown as % of equity-2.22%
 ($1,094)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/20/22 9:43 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 700 38.29 4/20 15:57 38.55 0.31%
Trade id #140195535
Max drawdown($154)
Time4/20/22 10:55
Quant open700
Worst price38.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
 $177
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/19/22 12:27 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,300 38.73 4/19 14:58 38.68 0.18%
Trade id #140185568
Max drawdown($91)
Time4/19/22 13:52
Quant open1,300
Worst price38.66
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($74)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.50
4/19/22 10:17 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 700 38.97 4/19 10:31 38.85 0.18%
Trade id #140182273
Max drawdown($91)
Time4/19/22 10:27
Quant open700
Worst price38.84
Drawdown as % of equity-0.18%
 ($89)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/19/22 10:11 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 800 62.75 4/19 10:17 62.75 0.24%
Trade id #140182004
Max drawdown($120)
Time4/19/22 10:16
Quant open800
Worst price62.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.24%
 ($5)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/19/22 9:33 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 700 39.69 4/19 10:04 39.09 0.89%
Trade id #140180356
Max drawdown($448)
Time4/19/22 10:03
Quant open700
Worst price39.05
Drawdown as % of equity-0.89%
 ($425)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/18/22 9:30 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 670 39.94 4/18 15:57 39.85 0.7%
Trade id #140166124
Max drawdown($351)
Time4/18/22 13:56
Quant open670
Worst price39.41
Drawdown as % of equity-0.70%
 ($65)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 14:20 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 800 39.23 4/14 15:57 39.72 0.07%
Trade id #140141496
Max drawdown($37)
Time4/14/22 14:30
Quant open800
Worst price39.18
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
 $387
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 14:01 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 600 62.55 4/14 14:20 62.38 0.25%
Trade id #140141271
Max drawdown($123)
Time4/14/22 14:20
Quant open600
Worst price62.34
Drawdown as % of equity-0.25%
 ($107)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 12:19 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 664 39.28 4/14 14:01 39.16 0.21%
Trade id #140140100
Max drawdown($103)
Time4/14/22 14:00
Quant open664
Worst price39.12
Drawdown as % of equity-0.21%
 ($86)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 12:18 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 664 62.29 4/14 12:19 62.30 n/a $4
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 12:06 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 400 62.36 4/14 12:18 62.27 0.08%
Trade id #140139987
Max drawdown($40)
Time4/14/22 12:18
Quant open400
Worst price62.26
Drawdown as % of equity-0.08%
 ($46)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/14/22 11:47 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 664 39.26 4/14 12:04 39.25 0.1%
Trade id #140139619
Max drawdown($51)
Time4/14/22 12:03
Quant open664
Worst price39.18
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
 ($9)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/14/22 11:45 UPRO PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P 500 SHORT 100 58.87 4/14 11:47 58.84 n/a $2
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.00
4/14/22 10:02 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 400 62.87 4/14 11:47 62.30 0.45%
Trade id #140137051
Max drawdown($228)
Time4/14/22 10:09
Quant open400
Worst price62.30
Drawdown as % of equity-0.45%
 ($234)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/13/22 13:35 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,300 39.07 4/13 14:04 39.03 0.11%
Trade id #140127805
Max drawdown($57)
Time4/13/22 13:59
Quant open1,300
Worst price39.03
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
 ($62)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
4/13/22 13:14 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 800 62.88 4/13 13:35 62.69 0.32%
Trade id #140127609
Max drawdown($160)
Time4/13/22 13:35
Quant open800
Worst price62.68
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
 ($157)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/13/22 12:58 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 900 39.01 4/13 13:13 38.91 0.2%
Trade id #140127449
Max drawdown($101)
Time4/13/22 13:11
Quant open900
Worst price38.89
Drawdown as % of equity-0.20%
 ($86)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/13/22 12:28 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 800 62.62 4/13 12:57 62.76 0.02%
Trade id #140127068
Max drawdown($12)
Time4/13/22 12:31
Quant open800
Worst price62.61
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 $104
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/13/22 11:47 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 1,300 39.19 4/13 12:27 39.11 0.41%
Trade id #140126511
Max drawdown($206)
Time4/13/22 12:25
Quant open1,300
Worst price39.03
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
 ($112)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.00
4/13/22 11:27 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 800 62.62 4/13 11:47 62.54 0.19%
Trade id #140125454
Max drawdown($96)
Time4/13/22 11:45
Quant open800
Worst price62.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
 ($75)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $10.50
4/13/22 9:30 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 670 39.78 4/13 11:26 39.12 0.91%
Trade id #140122417
Max drawdown($462)
Time4/13/22 11:26
Quant open670
Worst price39.09
Drawdown as % of equity-0.91%
 ($451)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/12/22 9:30 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 664 38.84 4/12 15:57 39.72 0.62%
Trade id #140108517
Max drawdown($312)
Time4/12/22 9:54
Quant open664
Worst price38.37
Drawdown as % of equity-0.62%
 $579
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
4/11/22 10:28 SDS PROSHARES ULTRASHORT S&P500 LONG 393 38.95 4/11 10:57 38.95 0.02%
Trade id #140097507
Max drawdown($9)
Time4/11/22 10:35
Quant open393
Worst price38.92
Drawdown as % of equity-0.02%
 ($4)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.86
4/8/22 10:26 SSO PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 LONG 390 64.18 4/8 12:18 64.94 n/a $289
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.80
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    3/2/2021
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $43,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    1350.88
  • Age
    45 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    344
  • # Profitable
    149
  • % Profitable
    43.30%
  • Avg trade duration
    18.8 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    14.18%
  • drawdown period
    March 08, 2022 - April 25, 2022
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    10.7%
  • Avg win
    $372.35
  • Avg loss
    $237.63
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $52,183
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $52,183
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.20:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.19
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.27
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.273
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    3.37%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.05970
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    54.23%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    0
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    10.7%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    16.50%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.72%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.107%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    5.3%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    9.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    0.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    4.32%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    367
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    899
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    735
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $238
  • Avg Win
    $372
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $46,338.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    45
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $55,480.000
  • # Winners
    149
  • Num Months Winners
    8
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    40
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    195
  • % Winners
    43.3%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    1129.68
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    18.83
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.8 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    932
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.23
  • Daily leverage (max)
    4.12
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.00
  • Beta
    0.03
  • Treynor Index
    0.17
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.47
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    30.898
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.459
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.238
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.032
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.18249
  • SD
    0.18823
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.96950
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.90740
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    1.00909
  • p
    0.36016
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.97137
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.87212
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.01034
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.82515
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.77464
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.41207
  • Upside part of mean
    0.35086
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.16838
  • Upside SD
    0.15781
  • Downside SD
    0.10283
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.11505
  • Mean of criterion
    0.18249
  • SD of predictor
    0.12268
  • SD of criterion
    0.18823
  • Covariance
    -0.00010
  • r
    -0.00416
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00639
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.18322
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03865
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.01381
  • p(b)
    0.50538
  • t(a)
    0.93368
  • p(a)
    0.18526
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -1.02457
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.01179
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.24869
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.61514
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -28.56810
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.18322
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.16489
  • SD
    0.18511
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.89079
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.83372
  • df
    12.00000
  • t
    0.92716
  • p
    0.37073
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.04266
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.78888
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.07866
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.74611
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.55220
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    3.18539
  • Upside part of mean
    0.33839
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.17350
  • Upside SD
    0.15037
  • Downside SD
    0.10623
  • N nonnegative terms
    8.00000
  • N negative terms
    5.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    13.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.10737
  • Mean of criterion
    0.16489
  • SD of predictor
    0.12232
  • SD of criterion
    0.18511
  • Covariance
    0.00042
  • r
    0.01847
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.02795
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.16189
  • Mean Square Error
    0.03737
  • DF error
    11.00000
  • t(b)
    0.06127
  • p(b)
    0.47612
  • t(a)
    0.84286
  • p(a)
    0.20863
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.97614
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.03205
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.26086
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.58465
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    5.89924
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.16189
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07147
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.09180
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.02709
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.05611
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    13.00000
  • Minimum
    0.92970
  • Quartile 1
    0.99909
  • Median
    1.02643
  • Quartile 3
    1.04103
  • Maximum
    1.13128
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.95715
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.01776
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.03249
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.08287
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.04194
  • Number outliers low
    2.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.15385
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.93065
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07692
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.13128
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -56.87220
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00468
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -3.72078
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.11958
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.11973
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.06839
  • Quartile 1
    0.06887
  • Median
    0.06935
  • Quartile 3
    0.06982
  • Maximum
    0.07030
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.06839
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.07030
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00095
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.21441
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.21264
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    3.02472
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    3.02472
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    2.31640
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.15049
  • SD
    0.12805
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.17524
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.17227
  • df
    297.00000
  • t
    1.25338
  • p
    0.10553
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.66591
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.01448
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.66791
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.01245
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.75156
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.07554
  • Upside part of mean
    0.77976
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.62927
  • Upside SD
    0.09511
  • Downside SD
    0.08592
  • N nonnegative terms
    153.00000
  • N negative terms
    145.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    298.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.06052
  • Mean of criterion
    0.15049
  • SD of predictor
    0.15303
  • SD of criterion
    0.12805
  • Covariance
    0.00188
  • r
    0.09597
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.08031
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.10700
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01630
  • DF error
    296.00000
  • t(b)
    1.65878
  • p(b)
    0.04911
  • t(a)
    1.21611
  • p(a)
    0.11246
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01497
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.17559
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.09004
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.38131
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.87396
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.14563
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.14227
  • SD
    0.12804
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.11107
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.10826
  • df
    297.00000
  • t
    1.18495
  • p
    0.11849
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -0.72977
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.95010
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -0.73167
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.94819
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.64094
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.94142
  • Upside part of mean
    0.77521
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.63294
  • Upside SD
    0.09435
  • Downside SD
    0.08670
  • N nonnegative terms
    153.00000
  • N negative terms
    145.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    298.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.04883
  • Mean of criterion
    0.14227
  • SD of predictor
    0.15315
  • SD of criterion
    0.12804
  • Covariance
    0.00188
  • r
    0.09590
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.08018
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.13835
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01630
  • DF error
    296.00000
  • t(b)
    1.65749
  • p(b)
    0.04924
  • t(a)
    1.15550
  • p(a)
    0.12441
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.01502
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.17538
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.09729
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.37399
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    1.77441
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.13835
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01239
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01565
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00540
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01099
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    298.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96940
  • Quartile 1
    0.99718
  • Median
    1.00017
  • Quartile 3
    1.00413
  • Maximum
    1.03071
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99174
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99891
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00191
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01015
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00695
  • Number outliers low
    13.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.04362
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97981
  • Number of outliers high
    14.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.04698
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01970
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.42981
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00844
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.01693
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.14265
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00758
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01142
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    22.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00007
  • Quartile 1
    0.00438
  • Median
    0.00598
  • Quartile 3
    0.02387
  • Maximum
    0.11471
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00175
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00525
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00927
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.06130
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01949
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    3.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.13636
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.09083
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.06604
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06193
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.08751
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.13605
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.08251
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.12554
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.18776
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.18551
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.61726
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    3.02622
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    11.85650
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.06444
  • SD
    0.15667
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.41134
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.40896
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.29086
  • p
    0.48725
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.36164
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.18288
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.36329
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.18122
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.59577
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.52350
  • Upside part of mean
    0.92200
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.85755
  • Upside SD
    0.11257
  • Downside SD
    0.10817
  • N nonnegative terms
    60.00000
  • N negative terms
    71.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.15936
  • Mean of criterion
    0.06444
  • SD of predictor
    0.18739
  • SD of criterion
    0.15667
  • Covariance
    -0.00060
  • r
    -0.02055
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.01718
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.06171
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02473
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.23347
  • p(b)
    0.51308
  • t(a)
    0.27710
  • p(a)
    0.48447
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.16279
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.12843
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.37888
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.50229
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -3.75065
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.06171
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.05225
  • SD
    0.15673
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.33335
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.33143
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    0.23572
  • p
    0.48967
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.43936
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    3.10485
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.44067
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    3.10352
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.47814
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.37947
  • Upside part of mean
    0.91564
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.86339
  • Upside SD
    0.11157
  • Downside SD
    0.10927
  • N nonnegative terms
    60.00000
  • N negative terms
    71.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.17684
  • Mean of criterion
    0.05225
  • SD of predictor
    0.18756
  • SD of criterion
    0.15673
  • Covariance
    -0.00063
  • r
    -0.02127
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.01778
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.04910
  • Mean Square Error
    0.02474
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.24166
  • p(b)
    0.51354
  • t(a)
    0.22035
  • p(a)
    0.48765
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01100
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.16331
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.12776
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.39180
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.49000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -2.93924
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.04910
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01560
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01957
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00793
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01533
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.96940
  • Quartile 1
    0.99595
  • Median
    0.99965
  • Quartile 3
    1.00449
  • Maximum
    1.03071
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98933
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99792
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00176
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01244
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00854
  • Number outliers low
    7.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05344
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97645
  • Number of outliers high
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03817
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02340
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.43981
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.01143
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02289
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.13620
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01003
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.01293
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    9.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00034
  • Quartile 1
    0.00381
  • Median
    0.01939
  • Quartile 3
    0.03671
  • Maximum
    0.11471
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00187
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01847
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.02972
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.09166
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03290
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11111
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11471
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -4.51395
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.07623
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.07627
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.46914
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.13024
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.15290
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -325061000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    48
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.08178
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.08345
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.72754
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.91047
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    4.26366

Strategy Description

Based upon our most accurate S&P Model, this strategy will trade the S&P using SSO (when Long) and SDS (when Short), slightly over-leveraged when Long, and under-leveraged when Short. It is reasonable to apply some leverage when Long because our Model's BUY signals are inherently more accurate than its SHORT signals. Thus, in order to strive for the lowest possible drawdown, Shorts (via SDS) are used, but they use a reduced amount of equity for these trades.
Trade this strategy at Interactive Brokers

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2021-03-02
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
344
# Profitable
149
% Profitable
43.3%
Net Dividends
$40
Correlation S&P500
0.060
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Sortino Ratio
0.27
Beta
0.03
Alpha
0.00
Leverage
1.23 Average
4.12 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.