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Featured Strategy SILVER ETF TRADER +18.8% Annual Return (Compounded) since May 2, 2023 Hypothetical

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z-Trader Commodities
(56282533)

Created by: z-_trader z-_trader
Started: 12/2010
Futures
Last trade: 4,712 days ago

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $95.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

-8.7%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(77.7%)
Max Drawdown
61
Num Trades
36.1%
Win Trades
0.6 : 1
Profit Factor
3.6%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010                                                                             +2.6%+2.6%
2011+9.1%(8.7%)+2.0%(5.7%)(23.7%)(36.3%)+14.1%+15.0%(41.6%)+6.7%(20.7%)(8.9%)(72.5%)
2012  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2013  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2014  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2015  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2016  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2017  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2018  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2019  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2020  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2021  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2022  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -              

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 96 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 63 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. The most recent trade in a real-money brokerage account occurred more than 4928 days ago.

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Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQuantAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
6/22/11 12:47 @SMZ1 SOYBEAN MEAL LONG 1 346.0 12/14 9:01 282.3 74.42%
Trade id #62766482
Max drawdown($7,120)
Time12/12/11 10:31
Quant open1
Worst price274.8
Drawdown as % of equity-74.42%
 ($6,378)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/23/11 12:12 @LEQ1 LIVE CATTLE SHORT 1 111.525 7/1 12:19 112.625 5.9%
Trade id #62810170
Max drawdown($920)
Time6/24/11 13:59
Quant open-1
Worst price113.825
Drawdown as % of equity-5.90%
 ($448)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/16/11 11:08 @QGQ1 MINY NATURAL GAS LONG 1 4.525 6/30 8:48 4.250 4.98%
Trade id #62557173
Max drawdown($850)
Time6/23/11 10:31
Quant open1
Worst price4.185
Drawdown as % of equity-4.98%
 ($696)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/15/11 8:50 @QCN1 Emini Copper SHORT 1 413 6/20 12:03 407 2.69%
Trade id #62492156
Max drawdown($575)
Time6/15/11 11:24
Quant open-1
Worst price418
Drawdown as % of equity-2.69%
 $742
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/16/11 12:04 @SBV1 Sugar #11 SHORT 1 24.74 6/20 11:44 25.65 6.25%
Trade id #62560351
Max drawdown($1,120)
Time6/20/11 11:14
Quant open-1
Worst price25.74
Drawdown as % of equity-6.25%
 ($1,027)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/15/11 10:41 @LEQ1 LIVE CATTLE SHORT 1 105.625 6/17 10:19 109.250 8.57%
Trade id #62499442
Max drawdown($1,500)
Time6/17/11 10:08
Quant open-1
Worst price109.375
Drawdown as % of equity-8.57%
 ($1,458)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/15/11 9:50 @QMQ1 MINY CRUDE OIL LONG 1 99.575 6/17 6:09 93.600 19.59%
Trade id #62496175
Max drawdown($3,525)
Time6/17/11 4:12
Quant open1
Worst price92.525
Drawdown as % of equity-19.59%
 ($2,996)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/10/11 9:20 @CCU1 COCOA SHORT 1 2997 6/16 13:20 2899 1.07%
Trade id #62329386
Max drawdown($230)
Time6/14/11 7:07
Quant open-1
Worst price3020
Drawdown as % of equity-1.07%
 $972
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/25/11 12:15 @OJN1 Orange Juice LONG 1 185.70 6/15 9:45 185.05 2.84%
Trade id #61763473
Max drawdown($675)
Time6/3/11 13:30
Quant open1
Worst price181.20
Drawdown as % of equity-2.84%
 ($106)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/1/11 13:17 @QMQ1 MINY CRUDE OIL LONG 1 100.750 6/13 13:25 97.300 8.91%
Trade id #61961044
Max drawdown($2,025)
Time6/13/11 13:08
Quant open1
Worst price96.700
Drawdown as % of equity-8.91%
 ($1,733)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/8/11 12:23 @BOZ1 SOYBEAN OIL LONG 1 59.60 6/13 12:41 58.11 4.22%
Trade id #62236572
Max drawdown($1,008)
Time6/10/11 13:46
Quant open1
Worst price57.92
Drawdown as % of equity-4.22%
 ($902)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
6/1/11 9:12 @SBN1 Sugar #11 SHORT 1 23.33 6/2 13:51 23.70 1.72%
Trade id #61944308
Max drawdown($436)
Time6/2/11 13:47
Quant open-1
Worst price23.72
Drawdown as % of equity-1.72%
 ($422)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/11/11 11:26 @QGN1 MINY NATURAL GAS SHORT 1 4.245 6/2 10:41 4.830 6.06%
Trade id #60943253
Max drawdown($1,537)
Time6/2/11 10:38
Quant open-1
Worst price4.860
Drawdown as % of equity-6.06%
 ($1,471)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/25/11 11:52 @QCN1 Emini Copper SHORT 1 411 6/2 5:55 412 4.87%
Trade id #61762564
Max drawdown($1,175)
Time5/31/11 10:12
Quant open-1
Worst price421
Drawdown as % of equity-4.87%
 ($83)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/5/11 11:20 @HEQ1 LEAN HOGS SHORT 1 94.325 5/24 19:53 89.525 1.56%
Trade id #60569495
Max drawdown($430)
Time5/10/11 19:21
Quant open-1
Worst price95.400
Drawdown as % of equity-1.56%
 $1,912
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/19/11 9:43 @QMN1 MINY CRUDE OIL LONG 1 100.425 5/23 5:49 97.250 7.88%
Trade id #61565340
Max drawdown($2,025)
Time5/20/11 9:57
Quant open1
Worst price96.375
Drawdown as % of equity-7.88%
 ($1,596)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/13/11 13:31 @QMN1 MINY CRUDE OIL SHORT 1 99.100 5/13 14:24 99.900 1.5%
Trade id #61309909
Max drawdown($400)
Time5/13/11 14:24
Quant open0
Worst price99.900
Drawdown as % of equity-1.50%
 ($408)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/11/11 13:19 @QCN1 Emini Copper LONG 1 392 5/13 12:12 396 3.2%
Trade id #60964541
Max drawdown($800)
Time5/12/11 5:52
Quant open1
Worst price385
Drawdown as % of equity-3.20%
 $567
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/6/11 10:42 @YGQ1 Mini Gold NYSE Liffe LONG 1 1497.7 5/13 12:06 1495.3 2.49%
Trade id #60616976
Max drawdown($620)
Time5/12/11 6:48
Quant open1
Worst price1479.0
Drawdown as % of equity-2.49%
 ($88)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/11/11 8:59 @QMN1 MINY CRUDE OIL LONG 1 102.975 5/11 13:35 99.700 7.15%
Trade id #60916582
Max drawdown($1,950)
Time5/11/11 12:15
Quant open1
Worst price99.075
Drawdown as % of equity-7.15%
 ($1,646)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/6/11 11:16 @OJN1 Orange Juice LONG 1 170.15 5/11 8:44 171.25 2.17%
Trade id #60618751
Max drawdown($585)
Time5/9/11 8:45
Quant open1
Worst price166.25
Drawdown as % of equity-2.17%
 $157
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
5/2/11 10:37 @CN1 CORN LONG 1 752 3/4 5/3 14:14 723 1/4 5.7%
Trade id #60390868
Max drawdown($1,575)
Time5/3/11 10:39
Quant open1
Worst price721 1/4
Drawdown as % of equity-5.70%
 ($1,483)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/26/11 8:02 @LEM1 LIVE CATTLE LONG 1 112.800 5/3 12:31 111.400 2.46%
Trade id #60143630
Max drawdown($680)
Time5/3/11 11:10
Quant open1
Worst price111.100
Drawdown as % of equity-2.46%
 ($568)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/20/11 7:14 @QMN1 MINY CRUDE OIL LONG 1 110.100 5/1 23:53 113.250 0.57%
Trade id #59984514
Max drawdown($187)
Time4/20/11 9:45
Quant open1
Worst price109.725
Drawdown as % of equity-0.57%
 $1,567
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/28/11 7:07 @QCN1 Emini Copper LONG 1 428 5/1 22:12 413 6.4%
Trade id #60234490
Max drawdown($1,900)
Time5/1/11 22:12
Quant open1
Worst price413
Drawdown as % of equity-6.40%
 ($1,908)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/24/11 19:43 @BON1 SOYBEAN OIL LONG 1 59.19 4/28 13:45 56.69 5.14%
Trade id #60092385
Max drawdown($1,584)
Time4/28/11 13:40
Quant open1
Worst price56.55
Drawdown as % of equity-5.14%
 ($1,508)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/19/11 23:22 @HEM1 LEAN HOGS LONG 1 102.250 4/26 10:01 97.800 5.65%
Trade id #59974093
Max drawdown($1,820)
Time4/26/11 9:49
Quant open1
Worst price97.700
Drawdown as % of equity-5.65%
 ($1,788)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/15/11 10:25 @CCN1 COCOA LONG 1 3127 4/18 11:25 3067 2.33%
Trade id #59845930
Max drawdown($770)
Time4/18/11 11:06
Quant open1
Worst price3050
Drawdown as % of equity-2.33%
 ($608)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/14/11 9:01 @SBN1 Sugar #11 LONG 1 23.30 4/15 13:34 22.99 1.42%
Trade id #59794351
Max drawdown($470)
Time4/15/11 3:45
Quant open1
Worst price22.88
Drawdown as % of equity-1.42%
 ($355)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
4/13/11 10:09 @OJN1 Orange Juice LONG 1 162.50 4/15 10:59 167.70 0.41%
Trade id #59753280
Max drawdown($135)
Time4/14/11 10:33
Quant open1
Worst price161.60
Drawdown as % of equity-0.41%
 $772
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00
Next

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    12/29/2010
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $30,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    5050.83
  • Age
    169 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    61
  • # Profitable
    22
  • % Profitable
    36.10%
  • Avg trade duration
    9.6 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    77.74%
  • drawdown period
    Feb 02, 2011 - Dec 09, 2011
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -8.7%
  • Avg win
    $1,236
  • Avg loss
    $1,205
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $10,216
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $10,216
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.58:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.72
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.89
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.276
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -432.81%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.07770
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    370.64%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -8.7%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    312.50%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.99%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.087%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -7.5%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    100.00%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    100.00%
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    100.00%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    0
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,205
  • Avg Win
    $1,237
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $46,997.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    167
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $27,212.000
  • # Winners
    22
  • Num Months Winners
    6
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    39
  • % Winners
    36.1%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    13776.80
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    229.61
  • Avg Trade Length
    9.6 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    4701
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.03
  • Beta
    0.06
  • Treynor Index
    -0.48
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.05
  • MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    50.26
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats
    30.81
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.52
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.02
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.07
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -3.230
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.07
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.384
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.193
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.310
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.20249
  • SD
    0.28748
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.70437
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.69416
  • df
    52.00000
  • t
    -1.48028
  • p
    0.92758
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.64340
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.24128
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.63626
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.24795
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.73752
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.32903
  • Upside part of mean
    0.09034
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.29283
  • Upside SD
    0.09550
  • Downside SD
    0.27456
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    47.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    53.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.29618
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.20249
  • SD of predictor
    0.19844
  • SD of criterion
    0.28748
  • Covariance
    0.00103
  • r
    0.01800
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.02608
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.21021
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08424
  • DF error
    51.00000
  • t(b)
    0.12856
  • p(b)
    0.44910
  • t(a)
    -1.39580
  • p(a)
    0.91559
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.38112
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.43327
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.51257
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.09214
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -7.76540
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.21021
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.25433
  • SD
    0.33762
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.75332
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.74240
  • df
    52.00000
  • t
    -1.58316
  • p
    0.94027
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.69351
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.19392
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.68586
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.20106
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.77012
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.26011
  • Upside part of mean
    0.08590
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.34023
  • Upside SD
    0.09033
  • Downside SD
    0.33025
  • N nonnegative terms
    6.00000
  • N negative terms
    47.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    53.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.27386
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.25433
  • SD of predictor
    0.19123
  • SD of criterion
    0.33762
  • Covariance
    0.00200
  • r
    0.03105
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.05482
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.26935
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11611
  • DF error
    51.00000
  • t(b)
    0.22183
  • p(b)
    0.41267
  • t(a)
    -1.53303
  • p(a)
    0.93428
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.44127
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.55091
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.62207
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.08338
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -4.63975
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.26935
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.16599
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.19875
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.07897
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.16738
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    53.00000
  • Minimum
    0.62252
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.14281
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.91544
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.03177
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11321
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.80268
  • Number of outliers high
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.11321
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.06883
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.65310
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.21074
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.30722
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.68872
  • Quartile 1
    0.68872
  • Median
    0.68872
  • Quartile 3
    0.68872
  • Maximum
    0.68872
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.14313
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.20262
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.29420
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -1.01946
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.19038
  • SD
    0.35007
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.54385
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.54350
  • df
    1173.00000
  • t
    -1.15123
  • p
    0.52138
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.46990
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.38242
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.46966
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.38266
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.78842
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.91459
  • Upside part of mean
    0.70381
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.89419
  • Upside SD
    0.25352
  • Downside SD
    0.24148
  • N nonnegative terms
    105.00000
  • N negative terms
    1069.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1174.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.34008
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.19038
  • SD of predictor
    0.28337
  • SD of criterion
    0.35007
  • Covariance
    0.01707
  • r
    0.17209
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21259
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.26300
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11902
  • DF error
    1172.00000
  • t(b)
    5.98054
  • p(b)
    0.41396
  • t(a)
    -1.60735
  • p(a)
    0.52345
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14285
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.28234
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.58332
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05796
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.89553
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.26268
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.25109
  • SD
    0.34813
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.72123
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.72077
  • df
    1173.00000
  • t
    -1.52672
  • p
    0.52834
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.64746
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.20526
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.64713
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.20559
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.97898
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.63020
  • Upside part of mean
    0.67459
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.92568
  • Upside SD
    0.23570
  • Downside SD
    0.25648
  • N nonnegative terms
    105.00000
  • N negative terms
    1069.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    1174.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.29932
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.25109
  • SD of predictor
    0.28568
  • SD of criterion
    0.34813
  • Covariance
    0.01715
  • r
    0.17240
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.21009
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.31397
  • Mean Square Error
    0.11770
  • DF error
    1172.00000
  • t(b)
    5.99177
  • p(b)
    0.41380
  • t(a)
    -1.93322
  • p(a)
    0.52819
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.14130
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.27888
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.63261
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00467
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -1.19513
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.31397
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03568
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04428
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01120
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.02465
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    1174.00000
  • Minimum
    0.79826
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.24259
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.98676
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.01076
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    136.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.11584
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97137
  • Number of outliers high
    105.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.08944
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.03014
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.88408
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00357
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00483
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.02085
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.01281
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.02820
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.04153
  • Quartile 1
    0.07002
  • Median
    0.10176
  • Quartile 3
    0.23431
  • Maximum
    0.72431
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.05577
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.10176
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.23431
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.72431
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.16429
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.72431
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.14107
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.20003
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.27617
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.27617
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -4.51728
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00000
  • df
    0.00000
  • t
    0.00000
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.68791
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.40564
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    0.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.00000
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -9748420000000000.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -9692070000000000.00000
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -6893170000000000.00000
  • p
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -10870200000000000.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -8513980000000000.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.60432
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.40987
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.02791
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.50000
  • t(a)
    -6838080000000000.00000
  • p(a)
    1.00000
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.03600
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -268868000000000010168568612126720.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.02791
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00011
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00011
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00000
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -343130000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    310
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description

Applies the same methodology as the fully-diversified zFutures program -- to a subset of the markets (to achieve a lower initial account size). z-Trader Commodities, combined with z-Trader Financials, will track zFutures, at a slightly higher level of leverage.

Due to the focused portfolio, we will roll this portfolio into a leveraged Diversified Sectors program to offer investors additional diversification. This program will be discontinued.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2010-12-29
Suggested Minimum Capital
$25,000
# Trades
61
# Profitable
22
% Profitable
36.1%
Correlation S&P500
0.078
Sharpe Ratio
-0.72
Sortino Ratio
-0.89
Beta
0.06
Alpha
-0.03

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.